Football · Spain Tercera Group 4 · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: CD Alaves C vs CD Touring

Team pages: CD Alaves C · CD Touring

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

CD Alaves C1.45

CD Touring1.17

1X2

43% 28% 30%

CD Alaves C Draw CD Touring

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Alaves C 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWLDWL

CD Touring 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLLLDW

Head-to-head

CD Alaves C 4–2–0 CD Touring (6 last)

CD Touring1-2CD Alaves C
CD Alaves C0-0CD Touring
CD Touring0-1CD Alaves C
CD Alaves C2-2CD Touring
CD Touring0-1CD Alaves C
CD Alaves C5-1CD Touring

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Alaves C 1502 · CD Touring 1486

	CD Alaves C	Draw	CD Touring
Our model	42%	28%	29%
Market	43%	27%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CD Alaves C: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Alaves C	CD Touring
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/33/50%	0/83/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 7	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.30

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	2.90 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.53 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:50 +87’	2.20	3.20	2.90
02:45 +9’	2.10▼	3.20	3.00▲
08:37 +1’	2.10	3.30▲	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:43 +17’	1.95	3.23	3.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Alaves C 4–2–0 CD Touring

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 4	CD Touring	1-2 HT 0-0	CD Alaves C
13/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 4	CD Alaves C	0-0	CD Touring
22/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 4	CD Touring	0-1 HT 0-0	CD Alaves C
13/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 4	CD Alaves C	2-2	CD Touring
10/02/24 Spain Tercera Group 4	CD Touring	0-1	CD Alaves C
23/09/23 Spain Tercera Group 4	CD Alaves C	5-1	CD Touring

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aurrera de Vitoria	3	2	1	0	5	3	7
2	Eibar C	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
3	Sodupe	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
4	CD Derio	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
5	UD Aretxabaleta	3	1	2	0	1	0	5
6	CD Touring	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
7	Real Sociedad C	3	1	1	1	4	3	4
8	Pasaia KE	3	1	1	1	4	5	4
9	CD Alaves C	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
10	Real Union B	3	1	1	1	4	5	4
11	SD Beasain	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
12	Lagun Onak	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
13	Leioa	3	0	3	0	5	5	3
14	SD Erandio	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
15	Santurtzi	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
16	San Ignacio	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
16	Cultural de Durango	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
18	Amurrio	3	0	1	2	1	5	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Alaves C	CD Touring
Aurrera de Vitoria	1-2 L	1-1 D
San Ignacio	1-0 W	1-2 L
CD Derio	2-3 L	1-2 L
Zarautz	5-1 W	2-2 D
Leioa	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CD Alaves C (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Alaves C

DDWWLWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Aurrera de Vitoria Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	1-2	10	2	L
12/09	Amurrio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	3-0	–	–	W
05/09	Eibar C Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-1	–	–	D
09/05	Portugalete Spain Tercera Group 4	0-2	1-2	5	3	L
03/05	San Ignacio Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
26/04	CD Derio Spain Tercera Group 4	1-0	2-3	8	10	L
16/04	CD Touring Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
11/04	Zarautz Spain Tercera Group 4	–	5-1	–	–	W
01/04	Aurrera de Vitoria Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	1-1	11	6	D
28/03	Leioa Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-1	–	–	D

CD Touring

WWLDLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	SD Beasain Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	2-0	6	8	W
12/09	Aurrera de Vitoria Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	UD Aretxabaleta Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
16/05	Leioa Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-1	10	4	L
09/05	San Ignacio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/05	CD Derio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-2	–	–	L
25/04	Zarautz Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-2	–	–	D
16/04	CD Alaves C Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
11/04	Aurrera de Vitoria Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	2-0	0	8	W
01/04	Leioa Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	2-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Alaves C vs CD Touring?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Alaves C win (43%). Probabilities: CD Alaves C 43%, draw 28%, CD Touring 30%.

How many goals are expected in CD Alaves C vs CD Touring?

The model expects 2.62 goals (CD Alaves C 1.45 · CD Touring 1.17), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Alaves C vs CD Touring?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.