Football · Spain Tercera Group 4 · 19/09, 16:30

Prediction: Pasaia KE vs Real Sociedad C

Team pages: Pasaia KE · Real Sociedad C

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Pasaia KE0.99

Real Sociedad C1.45

1X2

25% 28% 47%

Pasaia KE Draw Real Sociedad C

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Pasaia KE 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDLLLD

Real Sociedad C 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Pasaia KE 1–2–3 Real Sociedad C (6 last)

Real Sociedad C2-0Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE0-1Real Sociedad C
Pasaia KE0-5Real Sociedad C
Real Sociedad C1-1Pasaia KE
Real Sociedad C1-1Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE2-1Real Sociedad C

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pasaia KE 1438 · Real Sociedad C 1607

	Pasaia KE	Draw	Real Sociedad C
Our model	24%	29%	47%
Market	25%	28%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Sociedad C (rating 1438 vs 1607).
H2H favours Real Sociedad C: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pasaia KE	Real Sociedad C
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.8	2.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.2	5.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.20

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.82 ★
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.24
2	2.10 → 1.91▼	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:02 +7’	3.20	3.10	2.10
17:30 +10’	3.60▲	3.20▲	1.91▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:46 +54’	3.82	3.24	1.87

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Pasaia KE 1–2–3 Real Sociedad C

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 4	Real Sociedad C	2-0	Pasaia KE
15/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 4	Pasaia KE	0-1	Real Sociedad C
15/05/21 Spain Tercera Group 4	Pasaia KE	0-5	Real Sociedad C
25/04/21 Spain Tercera Group 4	Real Sociedad C	1-1 HT 0-0	Pasaia KE
01/02/20 Spain Tercera Group 4	Real Sociedad C	1-1 HT 0-0	Pasaia KE
14/09/19 Spain Tercera Group 4	Pasaia KE	2-1 HT 1-1	Real Sociedad C

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 4

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SD Beasain	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
2	UD Aretxabaleta	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
3	CD Alaves C	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
4	Sodupe	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
5	Real Sociedad C	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
6	Aurrera de Vitoria	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Real Union B	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
8	Santurtzi	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
9	SD Erandio	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
10	San Ignacio	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
11	CD Derio	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
12	Eibar C	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
12	Leioa	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
14	Cultural de Durango	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
15	CD Touring	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
16	Lagun Onak	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
16	Pasaia KE	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
18	Amurrio	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pasaia KE	Real Sociedad C
Anorga KKE	0-1 L	2-1 W
Cultural de Durango	0-0 D	4-0 W
UD Aretxabaleta	3-2 W	5-2 W
Zamudio	0-7 L	3-1 W
Santurtzi	0-0 D	3-0 W
Zarautz	3-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Real Sociedad C (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pasaia KE

WLDLWDLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Leioa Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
05/09	SD Erandio Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
09/05	Eibar C Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-3	–	–	L
03/05	Anorga KKE Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-1	–	–	L
25/04	Cultural de Durango Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-0	–	–	D
15/04	UD Aretxabaleta Spain Tercera Group 4	1-1	3-2	9	6	W
12/04	Zamudio Spain Tercera Group 4	0-3	0-7	3	8	L
02/04	Santurtzi Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-0	–	–	D
29/03	Real Sociedad C Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-2	–	–	L
19/03	Zarautz Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	3-0	3	4	W

Real Sociedad C

LWDWWWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Lagun Onak Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	2-0	5	7	W
05/09	CD Derio Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
09/05	Anorga KKE Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-1	–	–	W
03/05	Cultural de Durango Spain Tercera Group 4	–	4-0	–	–	W
26/04	UD Aretxabaleta Spain Tercera Group 4	–	5-2	–	–	W
16/04	Zamudio Spain Tercera Group 4	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
12/04	Santurtzi Spain Tercera Group 4	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
02/04	Zarautz Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
29/03	Pasaia KE Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-0	–	–	W
22/03	Lagun Onak Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pasaia KE vs Real Sociedad C?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Sociedad C win (47%). Probabilities: Pasaia KE 25%, draw 28%, Real Sociedad C 47%.

How many goals are expected in Pasaia KE vs Real Sociedad C?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Pasaia KE 0.99 · Real Sociedad C 1.45), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Pasaia KE vs Real Sociedad C?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.