Football · Spain Tercera Group 4 · 19/09, 12:30

Prediction: Aurrera de Vitoria vs CD Alaves C

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Aurrera de Vitoria1.06

CD Alaves C1.3

1X2

29% 29% 41%

Aurrera de Vitoria Draw CD Alaves C

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Aurrera de Vitoria 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLWWWD

CD Alaves C 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLWLDW

Head-to-head

Aurrera de Vitoria 0–2–0 CD Alaves C (2 last)

CD Alaves C1-1Aurrera de Vitoria
Aurrera de Vitoria0-0CD Alaves C

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aurrera de Vitoria 1490 · CD Alaves C 1522

	Aurrera de Vitoria	Draw	CD Alaves C
Our model	29%	30%	41%
Market	30%	29%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aurrera de Vitoria	CD Alaves C
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.2	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.2	3.5 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.6	5.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.10

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.08
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.35 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.21 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:33 +5’	2.70	3.10	2.35
21:42 +3’	3.00▲	3.10	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +57’	3.08	3.04	2.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aurrera de Vitoria 0–2–0 CD Alaves C

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 4	CD Alaves C	1-1 HT 0-1	Aurrera de Vitoria
23/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 4	Aurrera de Vitoria	0-0	CD Alaves C

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SD Beasain	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
2	UD Aretxabaleta	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
3	CD Alaves C	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
4	Sodupe	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
5	Real Sociedad C	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
6	Aurrera de Vitoria	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Real Union B	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
8	Santurtzi	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
9	SD Erandio	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
10	San Ignacio	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
11	CD Derio	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
12	Eibar C	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
12	Leioa	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
14	Cultural de Durango	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
15	CD Touring	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
16	Lagun Onak	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
16	Pasaia KE	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
18	Amurrio	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aurrera de Vitoria	CD Alaves C
CD Touring	1-1 D	2-1 W
Amurrio	2-1 W	3-0 W
Portugalete	2-1 W	1-2 L
San Ignacio	0-1 L	1-0 W
CD Derio	1-1 D	2-3 L
Zarautz	1-3 L	5-1 W
Leioa	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CD Alaves C (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aurrera de Vitoria

LLDLDLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	CD Touring Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Amurrio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-1	–	–	W
09/05	SD Deusto Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-1	–	–	W
03/05	Portugalete Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-1	–	–	W
25/04	San Ignacio Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
18/04	CD Derio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/04	CD Touring Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-2	3	8	L
01/04	CD Alaves C Spain Tercera Group 4	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
28/03	Zarautz Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
21/03	Leioa Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-1	4	4	L

CD Alaves C

WDDWWLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Amurrio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	3-0	–	–	W
05/09	Eibar C Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-1	–	–	D
09/05	Portugalete Spain Tercera Group 4	0-2	1-2	5	3	L
03/05	San Ignacio Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
26/04	CD Derio Spain Tercera Group 4	1-0	2-3	8	10	L
16/04	CD Touring Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
11/04	Zarautz Spain Tercera Group 4	–	5-1	–	–	W
01/04	Aurrera de Vitoria Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	1-1	11	6	D
28/03	Leioa Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-1	–	–	D
21/03	Eibar C Spain Tercera Group 4	–	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aurrera de Vitoria vs CD Alaves C?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Alaves C win (41%). Probabilities: Aurrera de Vitoria 29%, draw 29%, CD Alaves C 41%.

How many goals are expected in Aurrera de Vitoria vs CD Alaves C?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Aurrera de Vitoria 1.06 · CD Alaves C 1.3), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aurrera de Vitoria vs CD Alaves C?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.