Football · Spain Tercera Group 4 · 26/09, 12:00

Prediction: UD Aretxabaleta vs CD Derio

Team pages: UD Aretxabaleta · CD Derio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

UD Aretxabaleta1.21

CD Derio1.27

1X2

34% 29% 37%

UD Aretxabaleta Draw CD Derio

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

UD Aretxabaleta 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLWWDD

CD Derio 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWWWLDDW

Head-to-head

UD Aretxabaleta 0–4 CD Derio (4 last)

UD Aretxabaleta1-2CD Derio
CD Derio1-0UD Aretxabaleta
CD Derio2-0UD Aretxabaleta
UD Aretxabaleta0-1CD Derio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UD Aretxabaleta 1486 · CD Derio 1537

	UD Aretxabaleta	Draw	CD Derio
Our model	34%	30%	37%
Market	35%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Derio (rating 1486 vs 1537).
H2H favours CD Derio: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UD Aretxabaleta	CD Derio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	1.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	6.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.25

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.60▲	Pinn 2.78 ★
X	3.20 → 3.25▲	Bet365 3.25
2	2.50 → 2.40▼	Pinn 2.42

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:33 +10’	2.50	3.20	2.50
02:34 +1’	2.63▲	3.25▲	2.35▼
08:02 +17’	2.60▼	3.25	2.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:41 +162’	2.54	3.02	2.63
00:05	2.78▲	3.02	2.42▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UD Aretxabaleta 0–0–4 CD Derio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 4	UD Aretxabaleta	1-2 HT 0-0	CD Derio
31/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 4	CD Derio	1-0 HT 0-0	UD Aretxabaleta
15/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 4	CD Derio	2-0 HT 0-0	UD Aretxabaleta
01/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 4	UD Aretxabaleta	0-1 HT 0-0	CD Derio

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aurrera de Vitoria	3	2	1	0	5	3	7
2	Eibar C	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
3	Sodupe	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
4	CD Derio	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
5	UD Aretxabaleta	3	1	2	0	1	0	5
6	CD Touring	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
7	Real Sociedad C	3	1	1	1	4	3	4
8	Pasaia KE	3	1	1	1	4	5	4
9	CD Alaves C	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
10	Real Union B	3	1	1	1	4	5	4
11	SD Beasain	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
12	Lagun Onak	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
13	Leioa	3	0	3	0	5	5	3
14	SD Erandio	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
15	Santurtzi	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
16	San Ignacio	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
16	Cultural de Durango	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
18	Amurrio	3	0	1	2	1	5	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UD Aretxabaleta	CD Derio
CD Touring	1-0 W	2-1 W
Santurtzi	1-2 L	2-0 W
Real Sociedad C	2-5 L	0-0 D
Lagun Onak	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Derio (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UD Aretxabaleta

DLWLLLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Cultural de Durango Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
13/09	SD Beasain Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-0	0	7	D
05/09	CD Touring Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
09/05	Zamudio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	3-1	–	–	W
03/05	Santurtzi Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/04	Real Sociedad C Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-5	–	–	L
15/04	Pasaia KE Spain Tercera Group 4	1-1	2-3	8	6	L
11/04	Lagun Onak Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-1	–	–	W
02/04	SD Deusto Spain Tercera Group 4	0-2	0-3	9	5	L
29/03	Portugalete Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-2	–	–	D

CD Derio

DDDWWWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Santurtzi Spain Tercera Group 4	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
12/09	San Ignacio Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
05/09	Real Sociedad C Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
17/05	Lagun Onak Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-2	–	–	L
09/05	Zarautz Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	CD Touring Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/04	CD Alaves C Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	3-2	3	10	W
18/04	Aurrera de Vitoria Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/04	Leioa Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
01/04	Eibar C Spain Tercera Group 4	2-0	2-2	7	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UD Aretxabaleta vs CD Derio?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Derio win (37%). Probabilities: UD Aretxabaleta 34%, draw 29%, CD Derio 37%.

How many goals are expected in UD Aretxabaleta vs CD Derio?

The model expects 2.47 goals (UD Aretxabaleta 1.21 · CD Derio 1.27), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in UD Aretxabaleta vs CD Derio?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.