Football · Italy Serie D · 18/10, 15:00

Prediction: Derthona vs Asti

Team pages: Derthona

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.44Total
Derthona1.36
Asti1.09
1X2
42% 29% 29%
Derthona Draw Asti
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Derthona 3-4-3 (W-D-L)
LDDWDWWDLL
Asti 4-2-4 (W-D-L)
WDLLWWDLWL
Head-to-head
Derthona 1–1–4 Asti (6 last)
  • Derthona1-1Asti
  • Asti2-3Derthona
  • Derthona0-1Asti
  • Asti1-0Derthona
  • Asti2-1Derthona
  • Derthona0-1Asti
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Derthona 1500 · Asti 1494
DerthonaDrawAsti
Our model42%30%29%
Market42%29%29%
Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Asti: 4-1-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

DerthonaAsti
Goals for / against (FT)1 / 1.21.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)0.8 / 1.41 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/20/40%33/67/0%
Corners (HT / FT)2.4 / 4.41 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.2 / 02.7 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Derthona 1–1–4 Asti

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DateHomeScoreAway
22/03/26
Italy Serie D
Derthona1-1
HT 1-0
Asti
09/11/25
Italy Serie D
Asti2-3
HT 2-0
Derthona
06/04/25
Italy Serie D
Derthona0-1
HT 0-0
Asti
24/11/24
Italy Serie D
Asti1-0
HT 0-0
Derthona
28/03/24
Italy Serie D
Asti2-1Derthona
19/11/23
Italy Serie D
Derthona0-1Asti

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Reggina 7511 16216
2 Sambiase 7511 11516
3 Calcio Avola 1949 7502 111015
4 Vibonese 7421 16614
5 ASD Licata 7421 10914
6 ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora 7331 13512
7 Igea Virtus 7322 161411
8 Milazzo 7313 6910
9 Nissa FC 7232 10109
10 SSD Athletic Club Palermo 7223 10108
11 Siracusa 7421 1157
12 Modica 7214 7107
13 ASD CastrumFavara 7214 897
14 Città di Gela 7133 575
15 Vigor Lamezia 7124 7165
16 ASD Ragusa 7034 5103
17 Trapani 7205 3111
18 Enna Calcio 7016 0171

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentDerthonaAsti
Alessandria 1-3 L 0-2 L
ASD Millesimo Calcio 1-0 W 2-0 W
Ligorna 3-2 W 1-1 D
ASD Imperia 1-1 D 2-1 W
Record vs common 2 W 1 D 1 L 2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Asti (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derthona

LDDWDWWDLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
11/10 Chisola
Italy Serie D
1-4 2-4 42 L
04/10 Alessandria
Italy Serie D
0-2 1-3 22 L
27/09 ACSD Saluzzo
Italy Serie D
– 0-0 –– D
20/09 ASD Millesimo Calcio
Italy Serie D
– 1-0 –– W
16/09 Ligorna
Italy Serie D
2-1 3-2 104 W
13/09 ASD Imperia
Italy Serie D
1-0 1-1 44 D
06/09 Celle Varazze FBC
Italy Serie D
– 1-0 –– W
03/05 ACSD Saluzzo
Italy Serie D
– 1-1 –– D
26/04 ASD Imperia
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-0 24 D
19/04 Citta di Varese
Italy Serie D
– 0-1 –– L

Asti

WDLLWWDLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
11/10 GSD Lascaris
Italy Serie D
– 0-1 –– L
04/10 ASD Millesimo Calcio
Italy Serie D
– 2-0 –– W
27/09 Alessandria
Italy Serie D
– 0-2 –– L
20/09 Valenzana
Italy Serie D
– 2-2 –– D
16/09 ASD Imperia
Italy Serie D
– 2-1 –– W
12/09 ASDC Gozzano
Italy Serie D
– 2-0 –– W
06/09 Sestri Levante
Italy Serie D
– 0-2 –– L
03/05 Club Milano
Italy Serie D
1-1 1-4 31 L
26/04 Ligorna
Italy Serie D
1-1 1-1 44 D
19/04 Sestri Levante
Italy Serie D
1-0 2-1 13 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derthona vs Asti?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Derthona win (42%). Probabilities: Derthona 42%, draw 29%, Asti 29%.

How many goals are expected in Derthona vs Asti?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Derthona 1.36 · Asti 1.09), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Derthona vs Asti?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.