Football · Italy Serie D · 18/10, 15:00
Prediction: Sanremese vs Sestri Levante
Team pages: Sanremese · Sestri Levante
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.54Total
Sanremese1.55
Sestri Levante0.99
1X2
Sanremese
Draw
Sestri Levante
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sanremese
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Sestri Levante
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sanremese
3–2–1
Sestri Levante
(6 last)
- Sestri Levante0-2Sanremese
- Sanremese1-2Sestri Levante
- Sanremese1-0Sestri Levante
- Sestri Levante1-2Sanremese
- Sanremese2-2Sestri Levante
- Sestri Levante2-2Sanremese
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sanremese 1546 · Sestri Levante 1467
| Sanremese | Draw | Sestri Levante | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sanremese (rating 1546 vs 1467).
- H2H favours Sanremese: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sanremese | Sestri Levante | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/67/33% | 0/17/83% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.7 | 1 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sanremese 3–2–1 Sestri Levante
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Italy Serie D | Sestri Levante | 0-2 | Sanremese |
| 21/12/25 Italy Serie D | Sanremese | 1-2 | Sestri Levante |
| 08/01/23 Italy Serie D | Sanremese | 1-0 | Sestri Levante |
| 04/09/22 Italy Serie D | Sestri Levante | 1-2 | Sanremese |
| 01/05/22 Italy Serie D | Sanremese | 2-2 | Sestri Levante |
| 18/12/21 Italy Serie D | Sestri Levante | 2-2 | Sanremese |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 16 |
| 2 | Sambiase | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 15 |
| 4 | Vibonese | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | ASD Licata | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| 8 | Milazzo | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 10 |
| 9 | Nissa FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| 10 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| 11 | Siracusa | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Modica | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 7 |
| 13 | ASD CastrumFavara | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 14 | Città di Gela | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 15 | Vigor Lamezia | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 5 |
| 16 | ASD Ragusa | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| 17 | Trapani | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| 18 | Enna Calcio | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sanremese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Valenzana Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 04/10 | AC Bra Italy Serie D |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/09 | ASDC Gozzano Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | ACSD Saluzzo Italy Serie D |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 16/09 | Chisola Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Celle Varazze FBC Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/09 | Ligorna Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Sestri Levante Italy Serie D |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Club Milano Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | ASD Imperia Italy Serie D |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Sestri Levante
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Celle Varazze FBC Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 04/10 | Borgosesia Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 27/09 | Biellesse Italy Serie D |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | GSD Lascaris Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 16/09 | USD Fezzanese Italy Serie D |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 13/09 | Alessandria Italy Serie D |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | Asti Italy Serie D |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Sanremese Italy Serie D |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Celle Varazze FBC Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Asti Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sanremese vs Sestri Levante?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sanremese win (50%). Probabilities: Sanremese 50%, draw 27%, Sestri Levante 23%.
How many goals are expected in Sanremese vs Sestri Levante?
The model expects 2.54 goals (Sanremese 1.55 · Sestri Levante 0.99), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sanremese vs Sestri Levante?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.