Football · England Development League 2 · 29/09, 14:00

Prediction: Charlton U21 vs Millwall U21

Team pages: Charlton U21 · Millwall U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

Charlton U212.19

Millwall U211.49

1X2

53% 21% 26%

Charlton U21 Draw Millwall U21

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Charlton U21 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Millwall U21 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Charlton U21 4–2 Millwall U21 (6 last)

Charlton U212-0Millwall U21
Millwall U212-4Charlton U21
Charlton U211-0Millwall U21
Millwall U212-0Charlton U21
Millwall U211-6Charlton U21
Charlton U212-3Millwall U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charlton U21 1533 · Millwall U21 1413

	Charlton U21	Draw	Millwall U21
Our model	53%	22%	25%
Market	53%	21%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlton U21 (rating 1533 vs 1413).
H2H favours Charlton U21: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charlton U21	Millwall U21
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.8	1.4 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.33

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.70▲	Pinn 1.70
X	4.50 → 4.33▼	Pinn 4.48 ★
2	3.80 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.55

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:55 +9’	1.61	4.50	3.80
14:59 +3’	1.70▲	4.33▼	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:53 +11’	1.70	4.48	3.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlton U21 4–0–2 Millwall U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 England Development League 2	Charlton U21	2-0 HT 1-0	Millwall U21
28/10/25 England Development League 2	Millwall U21	2-4 HT 2-2	Charlton U21
18/02/25 England Development League 2	Charlton U21	1-0 HT 0-0	Millwall U21
22/10/24 England Development League 2	Millwall U21	2-0 HT 2-0	Charlton U21
04/01/24 England Development League 2	Millwall U21	1-6 HT 1-1	Charlton U21
16/10/23 England Development League 2	Charlton U21	2-3 HT 1-2	Millwall U21

Standings · England Development League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolton U21	5	5	0	0	17	2	15
2	Bristol City U21	5	2	3	0	13	8	9
3	Fleetwood Town U21	5	3	0	2	6	10	9
4	Cardiff U21	5	2	2	1	13	5	8
5	Sheff Utd U21	5	2	1	2	7	7	7
6	Barnsley U21	5	2	1	2	11	13	7
7	Peterborough U21	4	2	1	1	8	11	7
8	Sheffield Wed U21	5	1	3	1	8	6	6
9	Huddersfield U21	3	2	0	1	7	5	6
10	Charlton U21	5	1	3	1	9	8	6
11	Swansea U21	5	2	0	3	7	7	6
12	Wigan U21	6	1	3	2	15	19	6
13	Colchester U21	5	2	0	3	13	18	6
14	Coventry U21	4	1	1	2	9	10	4
15	QPR U21	5	1	1	3	9	12	4
16	Hull U21	3	0	1	2	4	9	1
17	Millwall U21	3	0	0	3	2	8	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charlton U21	Millwall U21
Sheffield Wed U21	2-2 D	1-1 D
Bolton U21	0-1 L	0-3 L
Watford U21	1-3 L	2-0 W
Peterborough U21	5-2 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Charlton U21 (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Charlton U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	Sheff Utd U21 England Development League 2	2-1	3-1	5	4	W
13/09	Sheffield Wed U21 England Development League 2	1-1	2-2	1	0	D
01/09	Wigan U21 England Development League 2	2-2	2-2	6	2	D
23/08	Barnsley U21 England Development League 2	2-0	2-2	2	4	D
18/08	Bolton U21 England Development League 2	0-0	0-1	12	3	L
20/04	Watford U21 England Development League 2	1-2	1-3	4	3	L
17/04	Colchester U21 England Development League 2	1-1	2-2	11	1	D
14/04	Wigan U21 England Development League 2	1-2	2-3	5	7	L
03/04	Bournemouth U21 England Development League 2	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
31/03	Peterborough U21 England Development League 2	3-1	5-2	5	4	W

Millwall U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	Bolton U21 England Development League 2	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
01/09	Fleetwood Town U21 England Development League 2	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
25/08	Huddersfield U21 England Development League 2	2-0	2-4	3	2	L
13/04	Coventry U21 England Development League 2	3-0	4-1	0	2	W
31/03	Sheffield Wed U21 England Development League 2	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
24/03	Fleetwood Town U21 England Development League 2	1-2	2-3	1	2	L
20/03	Watford U21 England Development League 2	2-0	2-0	4	0	W
17/03	Peterborough U21 England Development League 2	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
10/03	QPR U21 England Development League 2	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
06/03	Brentford U21 England Development League 2	0-2	2-3	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charlton U21 vs Millwall U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlton U21 win (53%). Probabilities: Charlton U21 53%, draw 21%, Millwall U21 26%.

How many goals are expected in Charlton U21 vs Millwall U21?

The model expects 3.68 goals (Charlton U21 2.19 · Millwall U21 1.49), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Charlton U21 vs Millwall U21?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.