Football · England Development League 2 · 06/10, 15:00
Prediction: Colchester U21 vs Swansea U21
Team pages: Colchester U21 · Swansea U21
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.95Total
Colchester U211.64
Swansea U212.31
1X2
Colchester U21
Draw
Swansea U21
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-2 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Colchester U21
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Swansea U21
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Colchester U21
3–3
Swansea U21
(6 last)
- Swansea U215-0Colchester U21
- Colchester U213-1Swansea U21
- Colchester U211-0Swansea U21
- Colchester U212-0Swansea U21
- Swansea U214-1Colchester U21
- Colchester U211-2Swansea U21
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Colchester U21 1460 · Swansea U21 1530
| Colchester U21 | Draw | Swansea U21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 21% | 52% |
| Market | 27% | 20% | 53% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.95 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Swansea U21 (rating 1460 vs 1530).
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Colchester U21 | Swansea U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2.9 | 1.8 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 6.1 | 2.5 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.2 | 5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Colchester U21 3–0–3 Swansea U21
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 England Development League 2 | Swansea U21 | 5-0 HT 4-0 | Colchester U21 |
| 09/03/26 England Development League 2 | Colchester U21 | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Swansea U21 |
| 03/02/26 England U21 Premier League Cup | Colchester U21 | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Swansea U21 |
| 04/04/25 England Development League 2 | Colchester U21 | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Swansea U21 |
| 06/01/25 England Development League 2 | Swansea U21 | 4-1 HT 3-1 | Colchester U21 |
| 12/01/24 England Development League 2 | Colchester U21 | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Swansea U21 |
Standings · England Development League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton U21 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 18 |
| 2 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | Bristol City U21 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 8 | 9 |
| 4 | Swansea U21 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 5 | Charlton U21 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 6 | Wigan U21 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 20 | 9 |
| 7 | Cardiff U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 |
| 8 | Coventry U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheff Utd U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | Barnsley U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 7 |
| 11 | Peterborough U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
| 12 | Huddersfield U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 13 | Sheffield Wed U21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 6 |
| 14 | Colchester U21 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 6 |
| 15 | QPR U21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 4 |
| 16 | Hull U21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 1 |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Colchester U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Coventry U21 England Development League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 25/09 | Sheffield Wed U21 England Development League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 15/09 | Wigan U21 England Development League 2 |
2-1 | 4-6 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 01/09 | Barnsley U21 England Development League 2 |
3-4 | 3-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 25/08 | Bolton U21 England Development League 2 |
0-2 | 0-7 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 14/08 | Fleetwood Town U21 England Development League 2 |
4-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 20/04 | Bristol City U21 England Development League 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | Charlton U21 England Development League 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 14/04 | Cardiff U21 England Development League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 10/04 | Barnsley U21 England Development League 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
Swansea U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | QPR U21 England Development League 2 |
3-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/09 | Fleetwood Town U21 England Development League 2 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 14/09 | Huddersfield U21 England Development League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 01/09 | Hull U21 England Development League 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 25/08 | Peterborough U21 England Development League 2 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 17/08 | Sheff Utd U21 England Development League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 21/04 | Sheff Utd U21 England Development League 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 19/04 | Brentford U21 England Development League 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 14/04 | Fleetwood Town U21 England Development League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 10/04 | Watford U21 England Development League 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Colchester U21 vs Swansea U21?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Swansea U21 win (53%). Probabilities: Colchester U21 27%, draw 21%, Swansea U21 53%.
How many goals are expected in Colchester U21 vs Swansea U21?
The model expects 3.95 goals (Colchester U21 1.64 · Swansea U21 2.31), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Colchester U21 vs Swansea U21?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.