Football · Argentina Championship Women · 24/08, 15:00
Prediction: Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)
Team pages: Ferro Carril Oeste (W) · Gimnasia LP (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)1.49
Gimnasia LP (W)1.13
1X2
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Draw
Gimnasia LP (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Gimnasia LP (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
0–2–4
Gimnasia LP (W)
(6 last)
- Gimnasia LP (W)0-0Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
- Ferro Carril Oeste (W)1-2Gimnasia LP (W)
- Ferro Carril Oeste (W)1-2Gimnasia LP (W)
- Gimnasia LP (W)1-1Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
- Gimnasia LP (W)4-1Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
- Gimnasia LP (W)1-0Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1522 · Gimnasia LP (W) 1468
| Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | Draw | Gimnasia LP (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 44% | 29% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferro Carril Oeste (W) (rating 1522 vs 1468).
- H2H favours Gimnasia LP (W): 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | Gimnasia LP (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.5 | 1.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.2 | 1.3 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 0–2–4 Gimnasia LP (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Argentina Championship Women | Gimnasia LP (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) |
| 10/02/25 Argentina Championship Women | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Gimnasia LP (W) |
| 13/11/24 Argentina Championship Women | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Gimnasia LP (W) |
| 10/03/24 Argentina Championship Women | Gimnasia LP (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) |
| 30/11/23 Argentina Championship Women | Gimnasia LP (W) | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) |
| 28/05/23 Argentina Championship Women | Gimnasia LP (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) |
Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Banfield (W) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors (W) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | River Plate (W) | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | San Luis FC (W) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| 5 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 | Union Santa Fe (W) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| 7 | Belgrano (W) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 9 | Huracan (W) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Lanus (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo (W) | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 12 | Social Atletico Television (W) | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 13 | Racing Club (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 14 | CA Independiente Women | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 3 |
| 15 | Gimnasia LP (W) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 | Newell's Old Boys (W) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | Gimnasia LP (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Social Atletico Television (W) | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Boca Juniors (W) | 3-3 D | 0-2 L |
| Lanus (W) | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| San Luis FC (W) | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Union Santa Fe (W) | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| CA Independiente Women | 6-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Ferro Carril Oeste (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 03/08 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 27/07 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/07 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 13/07 | Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 08/07 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 04/07 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 28/06 | Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 20/06 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
2-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
Gimnasia LP (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 27/07 | Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/07 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 13/07 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 08/07 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 27/06 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 19/06 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferro Carril Oeste (W) win (44%). Probabilities: Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 44%, draw 29%, Gimnasia LP (W) 27%.
How many goals are expected in Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)?
The model expects 2.61 goals (Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1.49 · Gimnasia LP (W) 1.13), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.