Football · England EFL Trophy · 18/08, 20:45
Prediction: Barnet vs Arsenal U21
Team pages: Barnet
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.11Total
Barnet2.07
Arsenal U211.04
1X2
Barnet
Draw
Arsenal U21
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Barnet
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Arsenal U21
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Barnet 1523 · Arsenal U21 1474
| Barnet | Draw | Arsenal U21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Market | 60% | 23% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barnet (rating 1523 vs 1474).
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Barnet | Arsenal U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 5.6 | 2.4 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.2 |
Standings · England EFL Trophy · EFL Trophy 26/27, Southern Group F
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AFC Wimbledon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Arsenal U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Barnet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barnet
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Salford City England League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Cambridge Utd England EFL Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Bromley UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 0 | D |
| 28/07 | Milton Keynes Dons UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 25/07 | Oxford Utd UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | Luton UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 14/07 | Watford UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 11/07 | Hemel Hempstead Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/07 | Hitchin UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Harrogate Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
Arsenal U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Boreham Wood UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 25/04 | Man City U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 13/04 | Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | West Brom U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/03 | Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-3 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 13/03 | Leicester U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-3 | 1-5 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 06/03 | Norwich U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 27/02 | Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/02 | Reading U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 13/02 | Newcastle U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Barnet vs Arsenal U21?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Barnet win (60%). Probabilities: Barnet 60%, draw 23%, Arsenal U21 17%.
How many goals are expected in Barnet vs Arsenal U21?
The model expects 3.11 goals (Barnet 2.07 · Arsenal U21 1.04), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Barnet vs Arsenal U21?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.