Football · England EFL Trophy · 18/08, 20:00
Prediction: Wigan vs Aston Villa U21
Team pages: Wigan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.65Total
Wigan1.79
Aston Villa U210.86
1X2
Wigan
Draw
Aston Villa U21
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Wigan
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Aston Villa U21
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Wigan 1464 · Aston Villa U21 1526
| Wigan | Draw | Aston Villa U21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Market | 61% | 20% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.65 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aston Villa U21 (rating 1464 vs 1526).
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Wigan | Aston Villa U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.5 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.3 | 2.5 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.2 |
Standings · England EFL Trophy · EFL Trophy 26/27, Northern Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aston Villa U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Blackpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Crewe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wigan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Wigan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Cambridge Utd England League 1 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 08/08 | Barnsley England EFL Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 01/08 | Grimsby UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 31/07 | Southport UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 18/07 | Port Vale UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Port Vale England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 14/04 | Rotherham England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Mansfield England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
Aston Villa U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Tamworth UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 01/05 | Man City U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Southampton U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 17/04 | Stoke U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/04 | Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 06/04 | Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 03/04 | Brighton U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 20/03 | Leicester U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 13/03 | Norwich U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 06/03 | Man City U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-4 | 0-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Wigan vs Aston Villa U21?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Wigan win (60%). Probabilities: Wigan 60%, draw 22%, Aston Villa U21 18%.
How many goals are expected in Wigan vs Aston Villa U21?
The model expects 2.65 goals (Wigan 1.79 · Aston Villa U21 0.86), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Aston Villa U21?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.