Football · USA USL Championship · 17/09, 02:30
Prediction: Birmingham Legion FC vs New Mexico United
Team pages: Birmingham Legion FC · New Mexico United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.3Total
Birmingham Legion FC1.45
New Mexico United1.85
1X2
Birmingham Legion FC
Draw
New Mexico United
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Birmingham Legion FC
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
New Mexico United
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Birmingham Legion FC
2–1–0
New Mexico United
(3 last)
- New Mexico United1-1Birmingham Legion FC
- Birmingham Legion FC1-0New Mexico United
- New Mexico United0-2Birmingham Legion FC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New Mexico United (rating 1463 vs 1578).
- H2H favours Birmingham Legion FC: 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Birmingham Legion FC | New Mexico United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.9 | 2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/90/10% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.8 | 1.6 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.2 | 4.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Birmingham Legion FC 2–1–0 New Mexico United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/24 USA USL Championship | New Mexico United | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Birmingham Legion FC |
| 11/09/23 USA USL Championship | Birmingham Legion FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | New Mexico United |
| 26/06/22 USA USL Championship | New Mexico United | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Birmingham Legion FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 41 | 30 | 43 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 23 | 41 |
| 3 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 37 |
| 4 | Tulsa | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 21 | 36 |
| 5 | Sacramento Republic | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 30 | 20 | 36 |
| 6 | Orange County SC | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 34 | 34 | 36 |
| 7 | San Antonio FC | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 29 | 28 | 36 |
| 8 | Lexington SC | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 37 | 30 | 34 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising FC | 24 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 34 | 32 | 33 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 31 | 34 | 32 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 29 | 35 | 27 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 42 | 18 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Birmingham Legion FC | New Mexico United |
|---|---|---|
| Indy Eleven | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Colorado Switchbacks FC | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Loudoun United FC | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: New Mexico United (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Birmingham Legion FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 06/09 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
2-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 30/07 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 06/07 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 03/07 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 21/06 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
New Mexico United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 12 | L |
| 27/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 5-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/07 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 05/07 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Birmingham Legion FC vs New Mexico United?
According to our model, the most likely result is an New Mexico United win (46%). Probabilities: Birmingham Legion FC 29%, draw 25%, New Mexico United 46%.
How many goals are expected in Birmingham Legion FC vs New Mexico United?
The model expects 3.3 goals (Birmingham Legion FC 1.45 · New Mexico United 1.85), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Birmingham Legion FC vs New Mexico United?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.