Football · Spain Tercera Group 6 · 20/09, 17:30

Prediction: Soneja vs Utiel

Team pages: Soneja · Utiel

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Soneja1.33

Utiel1.17

1X2

39% 30% 31%

Soneja Draw Utiel

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Soneja 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLWLWWLD

Utiel 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDLDDWDD

Head-to-head

Soneja 2–3–1 Utiel (6 last)

Utiel1-2Soneja
Soneja2-0Utiel
Soneja0-0Utiel
Utiel1-1Soneja
Utiel3-1Soneja
Soneja1-1Utiel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Soneja 1518 · Utiel 1447

	Soneja	Draw	Utiel
Our model	39%	29%	31%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Soneja (rating 1518 vs 1447).
H2H favours Soneja: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Soneja	Utiel
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	14/71/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.8	2.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.4	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.00

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.42 ★
X	3.10 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
2	3.60 → 2.88▼	Pinn 2.91

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:11 +18’	1.95	3.10	3.60
21:22 +2’	2.30▲	3.00▼	2.88▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:49 +215’	2.42	2.88	2.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Soneja 2–3–1 Utiel

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 6	Utiel	1-2 HT 0-0	Soneja
21/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Soneja	2-0 HT 0-0	Utiel
16/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Soneja	0-0 HT 0-0	Utiel
06/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 6	Utiel	1-1	Soneja
05/05/24 Spain Tercera Group 6	Utiel	3-1	Soneja
13/01/24 Spain Tercera Group 6	Soneja	1-1 HT 0-0	Utiel

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Torrent C.F.	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
2	Villarreal C	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Crevillente	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
4	UD Vall De Uxo	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
5	CD Bunol	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
6	Eldense B	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
7	CD Roda	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
8	Ontinyent	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	SC Torrevieja CF	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
10	Atletico Saguntino	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
11	Utiel	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
12	Hercules II	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
13	Jove Espanol	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
14	Levante B	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
14	Atzeneta	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
14	Acero	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	Soneja	2	0	1	1	2	5	1
18	Athletic Torrellano	2	0	0	2	1	3	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Soneja	Utiel
Jove Espanol	5-2 W	1-1 D
CD Roda	1-0 W	1-3 L
Recambios Colon	2-3 L	2-2 D
Athletic Torrellano	1-0 W	0-1 L
Levante B	2-2 D	0-3 L
Atzeneta	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Soneja (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Soneja

LWDLWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Crevillente Spain Tercera Group 6	1-2	2-2	5	3	D
06/09	Villarreal C Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-3	2	11	L
09/05	Jove Espanol Spain Tercera Group 6	–	5-2	–	–	W
02/05	CD Roda Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
25/04	Recambios Colon Spain Tercera Group 6	1-1	2-3	1	11	L
19/04	Athletic Torrellano Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
15/04	Hercules II Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
11/04	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	2-1	2-2	1	4	D
03/04	Atzeneta Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-0	4	9	W
22/03	UD Castellonense Spain Tercera Group 6	0-2	0-2	2	6	L

Utiel

WLLDLDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Acero Spain Tercera Group 6	–	1-1	3	5	D
06/09	UD Vall De Uxo Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
09/05	UD Vall De Uxo Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
02/05	UD Alzira Spain Tercera Group 6	–	2-2	–	–	D
26/04	Jove Espanol Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
18/04	CD Roda Spain Tercera Group 6	1-1	1-3	10	3	L
11/04	Recambios Colon Spain Tercera Group 6	2-2	2-2	7	5	D
04/04	Athletic Torrellano Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
29/03	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-3	0-3	9	9	L
22/03	Atzeneta Spain Tercera Group 6	–	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Soneja vs Utiel?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Soneja win (39%). Probabilities: Soneja 39%, draw 30%, Utiel 31%.

How many goals are expected in Soneja vs Utiel?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Soneja 1.33 · Utiel 1.17), with a 57% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Soneja vs Utiel?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.