Football · Spain Tercera Group 6 · 20/09, 18:30

Prediction: Atletico Saguntino vs Villarreal C

Team pages: Atletico Saguntino · Villarreal C

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Atletico Saguntino1.32

Villarreal C1.29

1X2

36% 29% 35%

Atletico Saguntino Draw Villarreal C

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Saguntino 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDWWWL

Villarreal C 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Atletico Saguntino 5–1–0 Villarreal C (6 last)

Villarreal C1-2Atletico Saguntino
Atletico Saguntino3-2Villarreal C
Villarreal C2-2Atletico Saguntino
Atletico Saguntino3-2Villarreal C
Atletico Saguntino2-0Villarreal C
Villarreal C1-2Atletico Saguntino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Saguntino 1565 · Villarreal C 1588

	Atletico Saguntino	Draw	Villarreal C
Our model	36%	29%	35%
Market	36%	29%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Saguntino: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Saguntino	Villarreal C
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.6	2.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.1	0.9 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/33/11%	67/22/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.2	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.1	6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.10

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.50▲	Pinn 2.58
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.00 → 2.60▼	Pinn 2.76 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:27 +16’	2.20	3.10	3.00
21:31 +3’	2.50▲	3.10	2.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:10 +145’	2.58	2.82	2.76

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Saguntino 5–1–0 Villarreal C

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 6	Villarreal C	1-2 HT 1-0	Atletico Saguntino
16/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Atletico Saguntino	3-2 HT 3-1	Villarreal C
22/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Villarreal C	2-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Saguntino
15/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Atletico Saguntino	3-2 HT 0-1	Villarreal C
23/01/22 Spain Tercera Group 6	Atletico Saguntino	2-0 HT 1-0	Villarreal C
25/09/21 Spain Tercera Group 6	Villarreal C	1-2 HT 0-1	Atletico Saguntino

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Torrent C.F.	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
2	Villarreal C	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Crevillente	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
4	UD Vall De Uxo	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
5	CD Bunol	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
6	Eldense B	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
7	CD Roda	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
8	Ontinyent	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	SC Torrevieja CF	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
10	Atletico Saguntino	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
11	Utiel	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
12	Hercules II	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
13	Jove Espanol	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
14	Levante B	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
14	Atzeneta	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
14	Acero	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	Soneja	2	0	1	1	2	5	1
18	Athletic Torrellano	2	0	0	2	1	3	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Saguntino	Villarreal C
Ontinyent	0-1 L	2-0 W
Levante B	2-1 W	1-3 L
Hercules II	3-0 W	4-0 W
UD Castellonense	1-1 D	3-0 W
CD Roda	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Villarreal C (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Saguntino

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Ontinyent Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
06/09	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	2-0	2-1	1	7	W
09/05	Hercules II Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
02/05	UD Vall De Uxo Spain Tercera Group 6	2-0	4-0	1	6	W
26/04	UD Castellonense Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
19/04	UD Alzira Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
12/04	Ontinyent Spain Tercera Group 6	–	1-0	–	–	W
05/04	Jove Espanol Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	2-1	4	9	W
28/03	Villarreal C Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
21/03	CD Roda Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	1-1	5	3	D

Villarreal C

LWWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	CD Roda Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
06/09	Soneja Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	3-0	1	11	W
17/05	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	1-3	6	7	L
09/05	Athletic Torrellano Spain Tercera Group 6	–	2-0	–	–	W
02/05	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
26/04	Atzeneta Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
18/04	Hercules II Spain Tercera Group 6	3-0	4-0	6	2	W
12/04	UD Castellonense Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	3-0	2	6	W
02/04	Ontinyent Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	2-0	1	9	W
28/03	Atletico Saguntino Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	1-2	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Saguntino vs Villarreal C?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Saguntino win (36%). Probabilities: Atletico Saguntino 36%, draw 29%, Villarreal C 35%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Saguntino vs Villarreal C?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Atletico Saguntino 1.32 · Villarreal C 1.29), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Saguntino vs Villarreal C?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.