Football · Spain Tercera Group 6 · 19/09, 17:30

Prediction: Hercules II vs Athletic Torrellano

Team pages: Hercules II · Athletic Torrellano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Hercules II1.13

Athletic Torrellano1.27

1X2

32% 30% 39%

Hercules II Draw Athletic Torrellano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hercules II 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWLLLD

Athletic Torrellano 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWLLLL

Head-to-head

Hercules II 1–1–4 Athletic Torrellano (6 last)

Athletic Torrellano3-0Hercules II
Hercules II2-2Athletic Torrellano
Hercules II4-3Athletic Torrellano
Athletic Torrellano2-1Hercules II
Athletic Torrellano1-0Hercules II
Hercules II0-2Athletic Torrellano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hercules II 1440 · Athletic Torrellano 1480

	Hercules II	Draw	Athletic Torrellano
Our model	31%	30%	38%
Market	32%	30%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletic Torrellano (rating 1440 vs 1480).
H2H favours Athletic Torrellano: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hercules II	Athletic Torrellano
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.9	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/25/38%	0/57/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.4	3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.00

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 13:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.80▲	Pinn 3.17 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.02
2	2.40 → 2.30▼	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:06 +9’	2.63	3.00	2.40
22:35 +15’	2.40▼	3.00	2.70▲
13:51 +3’	2.80▲	3.00	2.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:41 +7’	2.38	3.00	2.84
13:50 +4’	3.17▲	3.02▲	2.18▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hercules II 1–1–4 Athletic Torrellano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 6	Athletic Torrellano	3-0 HT 1-0	Hercules II
20/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Hercules II	2-2	Athletic Torrellano
01/04/23 Spain Tercera Group 6	Hercules II	4-3 HT 2-2	Athletic Torrellano
04/12/22 Spain Tercera Group 6	Athletic Torrellano	2-1 HT 1-1	Hercules II
20/02/22 Spain Tercera Group 6	Athletic Torrellano	1-0 HT 1-0	Hercules II
17/10/21 Spain Tercera Group 6	Hercules II	0-2 HT 0-1	Athletic Torrellano

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Torrent C.F.	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
2	Villarreal C	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Crevillente	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
4	UD Vall De Uxo	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
5	CD Bunol	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
6	Eldense B	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
7	CD Roda	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
8	Ontinyent	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	SC Torrevieja CF	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
10	Atletico Saguntino	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
11	Utiel	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
12	Hercules II	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
13	Jove Espanol	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
14	Levante B	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
14	Atzeneta	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
14	Acero	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	Soneja	2	0	1	1	2	5	1
18	Athletic Torrellano	2	0	0	2	1	3	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hercules II	Athletic Torrellano
Villarreal C	0-4 L	0-2 L
Soneja	2-1 W	0-1 L
La Nucia	0-1 L	0-3 L
Crevillente	1-1 D	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hercules II

LDLWLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Jove Espanol Spain Tercera Group 6	2-0	2-2	1	9	D
05/09	SC Torrevieja CF Spain Tercera Group 6	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
09/05	Atletico Saguntino Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	0-3	3	0	L
02/05	UD Castellonense Spain Tercera Group 6	1-2	1-4	3	1	L
26/04	Ontinyent Spain Tercera Group 6	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	Villarreal C Spain Tercera Group 6	0-3	0-4	3	2	L
15/04	Soneja Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/04	La Nucia Spain Tercera Group 6	–	0-1	–	–	L
04/04	Crevillente Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
25/03	CD Roda Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-1	2	8	L

Athletic Torrellano

WLWDLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Torrent C.F. Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
06/09	Eldense B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
09/05	Villarreal C Spain Tercera Group 6	–	0-2	–	–	L
02/05	La Nucia Spain Tercera Group 6	–	0-3	–	–	L
26/04	Crevillente Spain Tercera Group 6	1-1	4-2	2	6	W
19/04	Soneja Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
11/04	CD Bunol Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
04/04	Utiel Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-0	10	5	W
28/03	UD Vall De Uxo Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
22/03	UD Alzira Spain Tercera Group 6	–	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hercules II vs Athletic Torrellano?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Athletic Torrellano win (39%). Probabilities: Hercules II 32%, draw 30%, Athletic Torrellano 39%.

How many goals are expected in Hercules II vs Athletic Torrellano?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Hercules II 1.13 · Athletic Torrellano 1.27), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Hercules II vs Athletic Torrellano?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.