Football · Uruguay Segunda · 14/08, 20:00

Prediction: Cerrito vs Club Oriental

Team pages: Cerrito · Club Oriental

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Cerrito1.33

Club Oriental1.27

1X2

37% 29% 34%

Cerrito Draw Club Oriental

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cerrito 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWDWDDL

Club Oriental 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDDLDWLL

Head-to-head

Cerrito 2–2–2 Club Oriental (6 last)

Club Oriental2-2Cerrito
Cerrito2-3Club Oriental
Club Oriental1-1Cerrito
Cerrito3-1Club Oriental
Club Oriental2-1Cerrito
Cerrito2-1Club Oriental

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cerrito 1499 · Club Oriental 1501

	Cerrito	Draw	Club Oriental
Our model	37%	29%	34%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 12.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cerrito	Club Oriental
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.4	2.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.9 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.10

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.59 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.66

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:00 +3’	2.40	3.10	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:02 +1’	2.59	3.03	2.66

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerrito 2–2–2 Club Oriental

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Uruguay Segunda	Club Oriental	2-2 HT 1-2	Cerrito
12/10/25 Uruguay Segunda	Cerrito	2-3 HT 0-3	Club Oriental
21/07/25 Uruguay Segunda	Club Oriental	1-1 HT 0-0	Cerrito
03/11/24 Uruguay Segunda	Cerrito	3-1 HT 2-0	Club Oriental
13/07/24 Uruguay Segunda	Club Oriental	2-1 HT 1-1	Cerrito
29/11/23 Uruguay Segunda	Cerrito	2-1 HT 0-0	Club Oriental

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cerrito	Club Oriental
Colon FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1-1 D	2-2 D
Rentistas	0-0 D	3-0 W
Miramar Misiones	1-0 W	2-2 D
Tacuarembo	0-0 D	2-0 W
CA River Plate	4-6 L	1-2 L
CA Atenas	2-1 W	0-1 L
Paysandu FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Club Oriental (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cerrito

WWLLWDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
02/08	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
18/07	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
12/07	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
05/07	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
28/06	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
21/06	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	8	11	L
14/06	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	3-5	4-6	7	8	L
07/06	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
30/05	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	7	W

Club Oriental

WDWDDLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
04/08	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-2	1-2	10	9	L
19/07	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
12/07	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
05/07	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-2	7	5	L
28/06	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
20/06	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
14/06	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	3-0	4	4	W
08/06	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-1	2-2	2	8	D
01/06	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cerrito vs Club Oriental?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerrito win (37%). Probabilities: Cerrito 37%, draw 29%, Club Oriental 34%.

How many goals are expected in Cerrito vs Club Oriental?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Cerrito 1.33 · Club Oriental 1.27), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cerrito vs Club Oriental?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.