Football · England National League Cup · 18/08, 20:00
Prediction: Halifax vs Derby U21
Team pages: Halifax
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.64Total
Halifax2
Derby U211.64
1X2
Halifax
Draw
Derby U21
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Halifax
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Derby U21
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Halifax 1521 · Derby U21 1491
| Halifax | Draw | Derby U21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Market | 47% | 21% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Halifax | Derby U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2.6 | 1.4 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.9 | 1.2 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.9 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Standings · England National League Cup · National League Cup 26/27, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derby U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Halifax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gateshead | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nottm Forest U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Scunthorpe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stoke U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wealdstone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wolverhampton U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Halifax
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Boreham Wood England National League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Forest Green England National League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Curzon Ashton UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 28/07 | Rochdale UK Friendlies |
2-2 | 3-2 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Spennymoor Town Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/07 | Gainsborough UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Avro FC UK Friendlies |
2-2 | 3-4 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Chesterfield UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Bradford UK Friendlies |
1-4 | 1-6 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Sheff Utd UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
Derby U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Hull U21 England U21 Premier League Cup |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 27/04 | Brentford U21 England Premier League 2 Play-Offs |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 13/04 | Reading U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 06/04 | Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 03/04 | Man City U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 20/03 | Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/03 | West Ham U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 4-2 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 02/03 | West Brom U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/02 | Burnley U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 06/02 | Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Halifax vs Derby U21?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Halifax win (46%). Probabilities: Halifax 46%, draw 22%, Derby U21 32%.
How many goals are expected in Halifax vs Derby U21?
The model expects 3.64 goals (Halifax 2 · Derby U21 1.64), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Halifax vs Derby U21?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.