Football · England National League Cup · 18/08, 20:00
Prediction: Scunthorpe vs Stoke U21
Team pages: Scunthorpe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.14Total
Scunthorpe1.81
Stoke U211.33
1X2
Scunthorpe
Draw
Stoke U21
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Scunthorpe
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Stoke U21
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Scunthorpe 1517 · Stoke U21 1458
| Scunthorpe | Draw | Stoke U21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Market | 51% | 18% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Scunthorpe (rating 1517 vs 1458).
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Scunthorpe | Stoke U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/22/44% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.1 | 1.6 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0.5 |
Standings · England National League Cup · National League Cup 26/27, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derby U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Halifax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gateshead | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nottm Forest U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Scunthorpe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stoke U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wealdstone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wolverhampton U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Scunthorpe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Southend England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Yeovil England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 28/07 | North Ferriby UK Friendlies |
4-1 | 6-3 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 21/07 | Buxton UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Appleby Frodingham FC Club Friendly List |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Rochdale England National League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 28/04 | Southend England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Eastleigh England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Wealdstone England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 11/04 | Brackley England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
Stoke U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Leeds U21 England U21 Premier League Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 21/07 | Chester UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 27/04 | Peterborough U21 England Premier League 2 Play-Offs |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 17/04 | Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 12/04 | Southampton U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 23/03 | Fulham U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 3-2 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 13/03 | Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/03 | Burnley U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 27/02 | Norwich U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 13/02 | Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Scunthorpe vs Stoke U21?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Scunthorpe win (50%). Probabilities: Scunthorpe 50%, draw 21%, Stoke U21 29%.
How many goals are expected in Scunthorpe vs Stoke U21?
The model expects 3.14 goals (Scunthorpe 1.81 · Stoke U21 1.33), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Scunthorpe vs Stoke U21?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.