Football · Hungary NB I · 15/08, 17:00

Prediction: Puskas Academy vs Paksi

Team pages: Puskas Academy · Paksi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Puskas Academy1.94

Paksi1.52

1X2

46% 25% 29%

Puskas Academy Draw Paksi

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Puskas Academy 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWDLWLW

Paksi 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLWDLD

Head-to-head

Puskas Academy 1–1–4 Paksi (6 last)

Paksi1-0Puskas Academy
Puskas Academy1-2Paksi
Paksi3-2Puskas Academy
Paksi2-2Puskas Academy
Puskas Academy3-1Paksi
Paksi2-1Puskas Academy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Puskas Academy 1507 · Paksi 1509

	Puskas Academy	Draw	Paksi
Our model	47%	24%	30%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Paksi: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Puskas Academy	Paksi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	2.4 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	1.1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.2	2.9 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:27 +5’	1.95	3.50	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Puskas Academy 1–1–4 Paksi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Hungary NB I	Paksi	1-0 HT 1-0	Puskas Academy
24/01/26 Hungary NB I	Puskas Academy	1-2 HT 1-1	Paksi
27/09/25 Hungary NB I	Paksi	3-2 HT 1-1	Puskas Academy
19/04/25 Hungary NB I	Paksi	2-2 HT 1-1	Puskas Academy
14/12/24 Hungary NB I	Puskas Academy	3-1 HT 0-0	Paksi
01/09/24 Hungary NB I	Paksi	2-1 HT 0-1	Puskas Academy

Standings · Hungary NB I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ujpest	3	2	0	1	9	6	6
2	Puskas Academy	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
3	Vasas SC	3	1	2	0	7	2	5
4	Gyori ETO	2	1	1	0	6	2	4
5	MTK Budapest	3	1	1	1	8	6	4
6	Kisvarda FC	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
7	Paksi	3	1	1	1	8	9	4
8	Debreceni VSC	3	1	0	2	3	6	3
9	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus	3	1	0	2	2	6	3
10	Zalaegerszegi TE	3	1	0	2	5	10	3
11	Kispest Honved	3	0	3	0	6	6	3
12	Ferencvarosi TC	2	0	1	1	2	4	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Puskas Academy

LWWDWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	MTK Budapest Hungary NB I	2-0	3-2	4	6	W
31/07	Kisvarda FC Hungary NB I	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
26/07	Debreceni VSC Hungary NB I	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
16/07	Istanbul Basaksehir Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
11/07	FC Blau Weiss Linz Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
04/07	Slovan Bratislava Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
15/05	MTK Budapest Hungary NB I	0-0	2-2	6	5	D
01/05	Zalaegerszegi TE Hungary NB I	2-1	3-1	8	6	W
25/04	Ujpest Hungary NB I	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
19/04	Paksi Hungary NB I	0-1	0-1	6	7	L

Paksi

WDLWLLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Kispest Honved Hungary NB I	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
03/08	Zalaegerszegi TE Hungary NB I	2-3	2-5	7	6	L
30/07	Panathinaikos UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
26/07	Ferencvarosi TC Hungary NB I	2-2	4-2	7	3	W
23/07	Panathinaikos UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
17/07	FK Austria Vienna Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-4	2	1	L
16/07	Slaven Belupo Europe Friendlies	3-1	5-3	8	3	W
11/07	Kozarmisleny SE Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-3	11	0	L
08/07	Maccabi Haifa Europe Friendlies	2-1	3-3	8	1	D
04/07	NK Osijek Europe Friendlies	1-0	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Puskas Academy vs Paksi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Puskas Academy win (46%). Probabilities: Puskas Academy 46%, draw 25%, Paksi 29%.

How many goals are expected in Puskas Academy vs Paksi?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Puskas Academy 1.94 · Paksi 1.52), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Puskas Academy vs Paksi?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.