Football · Hungary NB I · 22/08, 15:30

Prediction: Vasas SC vs Puskas Academy

Team pages: Vasas SC · Puskas Academy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Vasas SC1.84

Puskas Academy1.42

1X2

46% 26% 28%

Vasas SC Draw Puskas Academy

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vasas SC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Puskas Academy 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Vasas SC 1–4–1 Puskas Academy (6 last)

Vasas SC4-1Puskas Academy
Vasas SC2-2Puskas Academy
Puskas Academy1-1Vasas SC
Vasas SC1-1Puskas Academy
Vasas SC1-2Puskas Academy
Puskas Academy0-0Vasas SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasas SC 1582 · Puskas Academy 1529

	Vasas SC	Draw	Puskas Academy
Our model	46%	25%	29%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vasas SC (rating 1582 vs 1529).
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasas SC	Puskas Academy
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.5	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.18 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
22:15 +1’	2.00	3.40	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:16	2.18	3.36	3.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasas SC 1–4–1 Puskas Academy

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/25 Hungary Cup	Vasas SC	4-1 HT 1-0	Puskas Academy
29/04/23 Hungary NB I	Vasas SC	2-2 HT 0-0	Puskas Academy
03/02/23 Hungary NB I	Puskas Academy	1-1 HT 1-0	Vasas SC
03/09/22 Hungary NB I	Vasas SC	1-1 HT 1-0	Puskas Academy
07/04/18 Hungary NB I	Vasas SC	1-2 HT 0-1	Puskas Academy
28/10/17 Hungary NB I	Puskas Academy	0-0 HT 0-0	Vasas SC

Standings · Hungary NB I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vasas SC	4	2	2	0	9	3	8
2	Ujpest	4	2	1	1	10	7	7
3	Puskas Academy	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
4	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus	4	2	0	2	4	7	6
5	MTK Budapest	4	1	2	1	9	7	5
6	Gyori ETO	2	1	1	0	6	2	4
7	Paksi	3	1	1	1	8	9	4
8	Kisvarda FC	4	1	1	2	6	7	4
9	Debreceni VSC	3	1	0	2	3	6	3
10	Zalaegerszegi TE	3	1	0	2	5	10	3
11	Kispest Honved	4	0	3	1	7	8	3
12	Ferencvarosi TC	2	0	1	1	2	4	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vasas SC	Puskas Academy
Zalaegerszegi TE	5-0 W	3-1 W
Kisvarda FC	3-1 W	0-2 L
MTK Budapest	1-3 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Vasas SC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vasas SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Kispest Honved Hungary NB I	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
08/08	Zalaegerszegi TE Hungary NB I	2-0	5-0	8	4	W
02/08	Ferencvarosi TC Hungary NB I	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
26/07	Gyori ETO Hungary NB I	0-0	2-2	4	6	D
18/07	Soroksar Club Friendly List	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
11/07	Kecskemeti TE Club Friendly List	0-1	5-1	–	–	W
08/07	Kisvarda FC Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
04/07	KFC Komarno Europe Friendlies	0-1	3-1	4	0	W
01/07	MTK Budapest Club Friendly List	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
17/05	FC Ajka Hungary NB II	1-0	2-1	3	3	W

Puskas Academy

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Paksi Hungary NB I	2-1	3-2	2	2	W
07/08	MTK Budapest Hungary NB I	2-0	3-2	4	6	W
31/07	Kisvarda FC Hungary NB I	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
26/07	Debreceni VSC Hungary NB I	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
16/07	Istanbul Basaksehir Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
11/07	FC Blau Weiss Linz Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
04/07	Slovan Bratislava Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
15/05	MTK Budapest Hungary NB I	0-0	2-2	6	5	D
01/05	Zalaegerszegi TE Hungary NB I	2-1	3-1	8	6	W
25/04	Ujpest Hungary NB I	1-0	2-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasas SC vs Puskas Academy?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vasas SC win (46%). Probabilities: Vasas SC 46%, draw 26%, Puskas Academy 28%.

How many goals are expected in Vasas SC vs Puskas Academy?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Vasas SC 1.84 · Puskas Academy 1.42), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasas SC vs Puskas Academy?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.