Football · England Premier League 2 · 10/10, 14:00

Prediction: Arsenal U21 vs Sunderland U21

Team pages: Arsenal U21 · Sunderland U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.95Total

Arsenal U212.09

Sunderland U211.85

1X2

44% 22% 34%

Arsenal U21 Draw Sunderland U21

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Arsenal U21 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLDDLD

Sunderland U21 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLWLWW

Head-to-head

Arsenal U21 1–2 Sunderland U21 (3 last)

Sunderland U213-1Arsenal U21
Arsenal U211-2Sunderland U21
Sunderland U211-2Arsenal U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arsenal U21 1457 · Sunderland U21 1497

	Arsenal U21	Draw	Sunderland U21
Our model	44%	22%	34%
Market	44%	21%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sunderland U21 (rating 1457 vs 1497).
H2H favours Sunderland U21: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arsenal U21	Sunderland U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.2	2.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	1.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X4.20

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.16
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.68 ★
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:56 +13’	2.05	4.20	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:20 +49’	2.16	4.68	2.41

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arsenal U21 1–0–2 Sunderland U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/03/26 England Premier League 2	Sunderland U21	3-1 HT 3-0	Arsenal U21
16/12/24 England Premier League 2	Arsenal U21	1-2 HT 0-1	Sunderland U21
18/12/23 England Premier League 2	Sunderland U21	1-2 HT 1-0	Arsenal U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Southampton U21	4	3	1	0	7	2	10
2	Man Utd U21	3	3	0	0	12	3	9
3	Sunderland U21	4	3	0	1	13	9	9
4	Nottm Forest U21	4	3	0	1	7	7	9
5	Fulham U21	3	2	1	0	11	6	7
6	Tottenham U21	3	2	1	0	9	5	7
7	Norwich U21	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
8	Chelsea U21	3	2	0	1	10	7	6
9	Brentford U21	4	2	0	2	10	8	6
10	Reading U21	3	2	0	1	7	6	6
11	Bournemouth U21	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
12	West Ham U21	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
13	Aston Villa U21	4	1	2	1	7	8	5
14	Stoke U21	3	1	1	1	6	3	4
15	Brighton U21	3	1	1	1	6	4	4
16	Crystal Palace U21	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
17	Everton U21	3	1	1	1	4	3	4
18	Leeds U21	3	1	1	1	9	9	4
19	Liverpool U21	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
20	Derby U21	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
21	Man City U21	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
22	Burnley U21	4	1	0	3	8	9	3
23	Arsenal U21	4	0	3	1	4	7	3
24	Ipswich U21	3	1	0	2	6	10	3
25	Birmingham U21	3	0	2	1	5	7	2
26	Middlesbrough U21	4	0	2	2	7	10	2
27	West Brom U21	3	0	1	2	8	11	1
28	Leicester U21	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
29	Blackburn U21	2	0	0	2	3	7	0
30	Newcastle U21	2	0	0	2	1	7	0
31	Wolverhampton U21	3	0	0	3	0	10	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arsenal U21	Sunderland U21
Chelsea U21	1-4 L	0-4 L
Norwich U21	2-2 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arsenal U21

DLLWLLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Birmingham U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
12/09	Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	1-4	3	3	L
31/08	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	2-2	6	1	D
22/08	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
25/04	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-3	9	4	L
13/04	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
04/04	West Brom U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
23/03	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	0-3	1-3	3	2	L
13/03	Leicester U21 England Premier League 2	1-3	1-5	6	4	L
06/03	Norwich U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	2-2	4	5	D

Sunderland U21

WLWDLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Norwich U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	3-1	7	4	W
11/09	Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2	4-1	4-2	3	6	W
31/08	Brentford U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-5	4	4	L
24/08	Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	5-1	6	4	W
26/04	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	2-3	5	5	L
06/04	Derby U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-2	5	7	L
30/03	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
23/03	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	3-0	3-1	4	2	W
14/03	Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2	0-3	0-4	4	2	L
09/03	Leeds U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	5-2	11	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arsenal U21 vs Sunderland U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arsenal U21 win (44%). Probabilities: Arsenal U21 44%, draw 22%, Sunderland U21 34%.

How many goals are expected in Arsenal U21 vs Sunderland U21?

The model expects 3.95 goals (Arsenal U21 2.09 · Sunderland U21 1.85), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal U21 vs Sunderland U21?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.