Football · England Premier League 2 · 16/10, 20:00

Prediction: Stoke U21 vs Chelsea U21

Team pages: Stoke U21 · Chelsea U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.03Total

Stoke U211.38

Chelsea U212.65

1X2

18% 18% 64%

Stoke U21 Draw Chelsea U21

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Stoke U21 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Chelsea U21 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Stoke U21 1–0 Chelsea U21 (1 last)

Chelsea U211-2Stoke U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stoke U21 1406 · Chelsea U21 1560

	Stoke U21	Draw	Chelsea U21
Our model	18%	19%	64%
Market	18%	18%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 4.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chelsea U21 (rating 1406 vs 1560).
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stoke U21	Chelsea U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.1	2.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.2	3.4 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.00

X5.00

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.75 ★
2	1.40 → 1.40	Pinn 1.41

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:50 +18’	5.00	5.00	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:54 +14’	4.84	5.75	1.41

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Stoke U21 1–0–0 Chelsea U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/09/25 England Premier League 2	Chelsea U21	1-2 HT 0-1	Stoke U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tottenham U21	4	3	1	0	13	7	10
2	Southampton U21	4	3	1	0	7	2	10
3	Sunderland U21	5	3	1	1	15	11	10
4	Man Utd U21	3	3	0	0	12	3	9
5	Chelsea U21	4	3	0	1	13	8	9
6	Bournemouth U21	4	3	0	1	8	6	9
7	Nottm Forest U21	4	3	0	1	7	7	9
8	Liverpool U21	4	2	1	1	8	4	7
9	Fulham U21	4	2	1	1	12	9	7
10	Leeds U21	4	2	1	1	11	9	7
11	Reading U21	4	2	1	1	7	6	7
12	Norwich U21	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
13	Brentford U21	4	2	0	2	10	8	6
14	Everton U21	4	1	2	1	4	3	5
15	West Ham U21	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
16	Aston Villa U21	4	1	2	1	7	8	5
17	Stoke U21	4	1	1	2	7	5	4
18	Crystal Palace U21	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
19	Brighton U21	4	1	1	2	7	9	4
20	Derby U21	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
21	Arsenal U21	5	0	4	1	6	9	4
22	Man City U21	3	1	0	2	7	6	3
23	Burnley U21	4	1	0	3	8	9	3
24	Blackburn U21	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
25	Ipswich U21	3	1	0	2	6	10	3
26	Birmingham U21	3	0	2	1	5	7	2
27	Middlesbrough U21	4	0	2	2	7	10	2
28	West Brom U21	3	0	1	2	8	11	1
29	Leicester U21	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
30	Newcastle U21	3	0	0	3	1	9	0
31	Wolverhampton U21	3	0	0	3	0	10	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stoke U21	Chelsea U21
Bournemouth U21	1-2 L	1-2 L
Wolverhampton U21	4-0 W	4-0 W
Fulham U21	3-2 W	3-1 W
Middlesbrough U21	1-6 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chelsea U21 (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stoke U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Bournemouth U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
11/09	Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	4-0	1	7	W
28/08	Norwich U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
21/08	Brentford U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	2-3	4	7	L
17/04	Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
12/04	Southampton U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
23/03	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	3-2	1	2	W
13/03	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	0-3	1-6	3	5	L
09/03	Burnley U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-3	3	7	L
27/02	Norwich U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-4	4	4	L

Chelsea U21

WWWLWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	3-1	9	4	W
12/09	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	4-1	2	3	W
31/08	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	1-3	5-4	6	6	W
21/08	Bournemouth U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
01/05	Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-3	12	8	L
25/04	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
10/04	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
20/03	Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2	3-0	4-0	7	5	W
14/03	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	3-0	4-0	10	2	W
09/03	Birmingham U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	4-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stoke U21 vs Chelsea U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chelsea U21 win (64%). Probabilities: Stoke U21 18%, draw 18%, Chelsea U21 64%.

How many goals are expected in Stoke U21 vs Chelsea U21?

The model expects 4.03 goals (Stoke U21 1.38 · Chelsea U21 2.65), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Stoke U21 vs Chelsea U21?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.