Football · Italy Serie D · 18/10, 15:00

Prediction: U.S. Ancona vs FC Forsempronese

Team pages: U.S. Ancona · FC Forsempronese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

U.S. Ancona1.73

FC Forsempronese0.73

1X2

61% 24% 15%

U.S. Ancona Draw FC Forsempronese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

U.S. Ancona 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWLWDDWW

FC Forsempronese 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWLWLDWL

Head-to-head

U.S. Ancona 1–4–1 FC Forsempronese (6 last)

U.S. Ancona1-1FC Forsempronese
FC Forsempronese1-2U.S. Ancona
U.S. Ancona1-2FC Forsempronese
FC Forsempronese0-0U.S. Ancona
FC Forsempronese1-1U.S. Ancona
U.S. Ancona1-1FC Forsempronese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · U.S. Ancona 1556 · FC Forsempronese 1482

	U.S. Ancona	Draw	FC Forsempronese
Our model	60%	25%	14%
Market	62%	23%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours U.S. Ancona (rating 1556 vs 1482).
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	U.S. Ancona	FC Forsempronese
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.6	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	17/67/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.6	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 1	5.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.45

X3.90

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:36 +12’	1.45	3.90	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · U.S. Ancona 1–4–1 FC Forsempronese

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/10/26 Italy Serie D Cup	U.S. Ancona	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Forsempronese
12/04/26 Italy Serie D	FC Forsempronese	1-2	U.S. Ancona
30/11/25 Italy Serie D	U.S. Ancona	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Forsempronese
08/10/25 Italy Serie D Cup	FC Forsempronese	0-0 HT 0-0	U.S. Ancona
17/04/25 Italy Serie D	FC Forsempronese	1-1 HT 0-0	U.S. Ancona
08/12/24 Italy Serie D	U.S. Ancona	1-1	FC Forsempronese

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	7	5	1	1	16	2	16
2	Sambiase	7	5	1	1	11	5	16
3	Calcio Avola 1949	7	5	0	2	11	10	15
4	Vibonese	7	4	2	1	16	6	14
5	ASD Licata	7	4	2	1	10	9	14
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	7	3	3	1	13	5	12
7	Igea Virtus	7	3	2	2	16	14	11
8	Milazzo	7	3	1	3	6	9	10
9	Nissa FC	7	2	3	2	10	10	9
10	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
11	Siracusa	7	4	2	1	11	5	7
12	Modica	7	2	1	4	7	10	7
13	ASD CastrumFavara	7	2	1	4	8	9	7
14	Città di Gela	7	1	3	3	5	7	5
15	Vigor Lamezia	7	1	2	4	7	16	5
16	ASD Ragusa	7	0	3	4	5	10	3
17	Trapani	7	2	0	5	3	11	1
18	Enna Calcio	7	0	1	6	0	17	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	U.S. Ancona	FC Forsempronese
Giulianova Calcio 1924	2-0 W	2-1 W
ASD Sporting Trestina	2-0 W	1-0 W
L'Aquila	2-2 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: U.S. Ancona (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

U.S. Ancona

WDDWLWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
04/10	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
27/09	ASD Angelana 1930 Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	1-0	2-2	7	5	D
16/09	Maceratese Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	5	11	W
12/09	ASD K-Sport Montecchio Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
06/09	Notaresco Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
03/05	Notaresco Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/04	Sammaurese Italy Serie D	2-0	3-0	4	6	W

FC Forsempronese

DWLWLWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Termoli Italy Serie D	1-0	1-2	4	8	L
04/10	ASD Atletico Ascoli Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/09	Vigor Senigallia Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
20/09	Lanciano Italy Serie D	–	2-4	–	–	L
16/09	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
12/09	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	0-1	0-4	8	5	L
06/09	Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
03/05	Recanatese Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/04	Castelfidardo Italy Serie D	–	3-1	–	–	W
19/04	ASD Atletico Ascoli Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	2	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in U.S. Ancona vs FC Forsempronese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a U.S. Ancona win (61%). Probabilities: U.S. Ancona 61%, draw 24%, FC Forsempronese 15%.

How many goals are expected in U.S. Ancona vs FC Forsempronese?

The model expects 2.47 goals (U.S. Ancona 1.73 · FC Forsempronese 0.73), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in U.S. Ancona vs FC Forsempronese?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.