Football · Italy Serie D · 18/10, 15:00

Prediction: Notaresco Calcio 1924 vs Maceratese

Team pages: Notaresco Calcio 1924 · Maceratese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Notaresco Calcio 19241.63

Maceratese0.9

1X2

54% 27% 20%

Notaresco Calcio 1924 Draw Maceratese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Notaresco Calcio 1924 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Maceratese 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLWDWL

Head-to-head

Notaresco Calcio 1924 1–1–2 Maceratese (4 last)

Maceratese2-1Notaresco Calcio 1924
Notaresco Calcio 19242-1Maceratese
Maceratese0-0Notaresco Calcio 1924
Notaresco Calcio 19240-1Maceratese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Notaresco Calcio 1924 1498 · Maceratese 1457

	Notaresco Calcio 1924	Draw	Maceratese
Our model	53%	27%	20%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Notaresco Calcio 1924 (rating 1498 vs 1457).
H2H favours Maceratese: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Notaresco Calcio 1924	Maceratese
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/43/43%	0/43/57%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.9	1.5 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.40

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:40 +7’	1.67	3.40	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Notaresco Calcio 1924 1–1–2 Maceratese

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Italy Serie D	Maceratese	2-1	Notaresco Calcio 1924
19/10/25 Italy Serie D	Notaresco Calcio 1924	2-1 HT 0-0	Maceratese
28/02/15 Italy Serie D	Maceratese	0-0	Notaresco Calcio 1924
19/10/14 Italy Serie D	Notaresco Calcio 1924	0-1	Maceratese

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	7	5	1	1	16	2	16
2	Sambiase	7	5	1	1	11	5	16
3	Calcio Avola 1949	7	5	0	2	11	10	15
4	Vibonese	7	4	2	1	16	6	14
5	ASD Licata	7	4	2	1	10	9	14
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	7	3	3	1	13	5	12
7	Igea Virtus	7	3	2	2	16	14	11
8	Milazzo	7	3	1	3	6	9	10
9	Nissa FC	7	2	3	2	10	10	9
10	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
11	Siracusa	7	4	2	1	11	5	7
12	Modica	7	2	1	4	7	10	7
13	ASD CastrumFavara	7	2	1	4	8	9	7
14	Città di Gela	7	1	3	3	5	7	5
15	Vigor Lamezia	7	1	2	4	7	16	5
16	ASD Ragusa	7	0	3	4	5	10	3
17	Trapani	7	2	0	5	3	11	1
18	Enna Calcio	7	0	1	6	0	17	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Notaresco Calcio 1924	Maceratese
Recanatese	2-1 W	3-2 W
Polisportiva Pietralunghese	1-1 D	2-0 W
Foligno	0-1 L	0-2 L
Santegidiese	1-0 W	1-1 D
Teramo	2-2 D	0-3 L
U.S. Ancona	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Notaresco Calcio 1924 (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Notaresco Calcio 1924

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Recanatese Italy Serie D	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
04/10	ASD K-Sport Montecchio Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
26/09	Polisportiva Pietralunghese Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
20/09	Foligno Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/09	Santegidiese Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Teramo Italy Serie D	0-1	2-2	2	9	D
06/09	U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
17/05	Teramo Italy Serie D	0-2	1-3	3	3	L
03/05	U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	San Marino Calcio Italy Serie D	1-2	1-2	10	6	L

Maceratese

LDLLLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Foligno Italy Serie D	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
04/10	Recanatese Italy Serie D	1-2	3-2	7	3	W
27/09	Santegidiese Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	1	1	D
20/09	Polisportiva Pietralunghese Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
16/09	U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	2	11	L
13/09	ASD Atletico Ascoli Italy Serie D	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
06/09	Teramo Italy Serie D	–	0-3	–	–	L
03/05	Chieti Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
26/04	Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	4	0	D
19/04	Unipomezia Italy Serie D	–	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Notaresco Calcio 1924 vs Maceratese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Notaresco Calcio 1924 win (54%). Probabilities: Notaresco Calcio 1924 54%, draw 27%, Maceratese 20%.

How many goals are expected in Notaresco Calcio 1924 vs Maceratese?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Notaresco Calcio 1924 1.63 · Maceratese 0.9), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Notaresco Calcio 1924 vs Maceratese?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.