Football · Italy Serie D · 18/10, 15:00

Prediction: Recanatese vs L'Aquila

Team pages: Recanatese · L'Aquila

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Recanatese0.81

L'Aquila1.65

1X2

18% 26% 57%

Recanatese Draw L'Aquila

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Recanatese 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDDWDLLL

L'Aquila 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LDDWWDDWWW

Head-to-head

Recanatese 1–5 L'Aquila (6 last)

Recanatese0-2L'Aquila
L'Aquila2-1Recanatese
Recanatese0-2L'Aquila
L'Aquila2-1Recanatese
Recanatese2-1L'Aquila
L'Aquila2-0Recanatese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Recanatese 1486 · L'Aquila 1592

	Recanatese	Draw	L'Aquila
Our model	17%	27%	56%
Market	18%	25%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours L'Aquila (rating 1486 vs 1592).
H2H favours L'Aquila: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Recanatese	L'Aquila
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	1.6 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	67/0/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	5 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.60

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:26 +21’	5.00	3.60	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Recanatese 1–0–5 L'Aquila

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Italy Serie D	Recanatese	0-2 HT 0-2	L'Aquila
24/09/25 Italy Serie D	L'Aquila	2-1	Recanatese
19/01/25 Italy Serie D	Recanatese	0-2 HT 0-1	L'Aquila
22/09/24 Italy Serie D	L'Aquila	2-1	Recanatese
29/03/18 Italy Serie D	Recanatese	2-1 HT 1-1	L'Aquila
12/11/17 Italy Serie D	L'Aquila	2-0	Recanatese

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	7	5	1	1	16	2	16
2	Sambiase	7	5	1	1	11	5	16
3	Calcio Avola 1949	7	5	0	2	11	10	15
4	Vibonese	7	4	2	1	16	6	14
5	ASD Licata	7	4	2	1	10	9	14
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	7	3	3	1	13	5	12
7	Igea Virtus	7	3	2	2	16	14	11
8	Milazzo	7	3	1	3	6	9	10
9	Nissa FC	7	2	3	2	10	10	9
10	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
11	Siracusa	7	4	2	1	11	5	7
12	Modica	7	2	1	4	7	10	7
13	ASD CastrumFavara	7	2	1	4	8	9	7
14	Città di Gela	7	1	3	3	5	7	5
15	Vigor Lamezia	7	1	2	4	7	16	5
16	ASD Ragusa	7	0	3	4	5	10	3
17	Trapani	7	2	0	5	3	11	1
18	Enna Calcio	7	0	1	6	0	17	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Recanatese	L'Aquila
Santegidiese	1-1 D	2-1 W
Polisportiva Pietralunghese	0-0 D	3-0 W
FC Forsempronese	2-0 W	4-0 W
Teramo	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: L'Aquila (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Recanatese

WDWDDWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Notaresco Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
04/10	Maceratese Italy Serie D	2-1	2-3	4	3	L
27/09	Lanciano Italy Serie D	–	1-4	–	–	L
20/09	ASD K-Sport Montecchio Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
16/09	Foligno Italy Serie D	2-1	4-1	1	4	W
12/09	Santegidiese Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Polisportiva Pietralunghese Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/05	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
26/04	Teramo Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
19/04	ASD Sora Calcio 1907 Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W

L'Aquila

LDDWWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Santegidiese Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
04/10	Polisportiva Pietralunghese Italy Serie D	2-0	3-0	5	7	W
27/09	Teramo Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
20/09	U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D	0-1	2-2	11	5	D
16/09	ASD Atletico Ascoli Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	1-0	4-0	5	5	W
06/09	Termoli Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	Termoli Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/04	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Recanatese vs L'Aquila?

According to our model, the most likely result is an L'Aquila win (57%). Probabilities: Recanatese 18%, draw 26%, L'Aquila 57%.

How many goals are expected in Recanatese vs L'Aquila?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Recanatese 0.81 · L'Aquila 1.65), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Recanatese vs L'Aquila?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.