Football · Italy Serie D · 08/11, 14:30

Prediction: Pro Patria vs Pistoiese

Team pages: Pistoiese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Pro Patria1.08

Pistoiese1.35

1X2

29% 29% 42%

Pro Patria Draw Pistoiese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Pro Patria 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDWWDL

Pistoiese 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Pro Patria 2–2–1 Pistoiese (5 last)

Pistoiese1-2Pro Patria
Pro Patria0-0Pistoiese
Pro Patria1-1Pistoiese
Pistoiese3-1Pro Patria
Pro Patria2-1Pistoiese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pro Patria 1555 · Pistoiese 1583

	Pro Patria	Draw	Pistoiese
Our model	29%	30%	42%
Market	30%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Pro Patria: 2-2-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pro Patria	Pistoiese
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.7	2.4 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	1.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	63/25/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 7	3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.25

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:10 +39’	3.00	3.25	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Pro Patria 2–2–1 Pistoiese

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/21 Italy Serie C Group A	Pistoiese	1-2 HT 0-2	Pro Patria
11/10/20 Italy Serie C Group A	Pro Patria	0-0 HT 0-0	Pistoiese
24/11/19 Italy Serie C Group A	Pro Patria	1-1 HT 0-0	Pistoiese
30/12/18 Italy Serie C Group A	Pistoiese	3-1 HT 1-0	Pro Patria
16/09/18 Italy Serie C Group A	Pro Patria	2-1 HT 0-0	Pistoiese

Standings · Italy Serie D

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	10	7	2	1	25	7	23
2	Sambiase	10	7	2	1	17	8	23
3	Vibonese	10	6	3	1	22	9	21
4	Calcio Avola 1949	10	6	1	3	16	14	19
5	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	10	5	3	2	16	8	18
6	Milazzo	10	5	1	4	11	12	16
7	Igea Virtus	10	4	3	3	23	21	15
8	ASD Licata	10	4	2	4	10	17	14
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	9	4	2	3	12	10	14
10	Città di Gela	10	3	4	3	11	8	12
11	Nissa FC	10	3	3	4	16	14	12
12	Siracusa	10	5	3	2	17	10	11
13	Vigor Lamezia	10	2	2	6	10	18	8
14	ASD CastrumFavara	10	2	2	6	11	17	8
15	Modica	9	2	1	6	7	12	7
16	Trapani	10	3	2	5	7	14	6
17	ASD Ragusa	10	0	3	7	9	21	3
18	Enna Calcio	10	0	3	7	4	24	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pro Patria	Pistoiese
Pavia	0-1 L	1-0 W
Correggese	1-1 D	1-0 W
USD Casatese	2-1 W	3-0 W
A.C.D. Sant'Angelo	1-0 W	3-0 W
ASD Varesina	0-0 D	1-0 W
Solbiatese Calcio 1911	0-1 L	2-0 W
Arconatese	3-0 W	5-0 W
A.C. Crema 1908	2-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	8 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Pistoiese (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pro Patria

WWWWLDWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Pavia Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
25/10	Correggese Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/10	USD Casatese Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/10	A.C.D. Sant'Angelo Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
04/10	ASD Varesina Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
27/09	Solbiatese Calcio 1911 Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
20/09	Arconatese Italy Serie D	–	3-0	–	–	W
16/09	A.C. Crema 1908 Italy Serie D	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
12/09	Pontedera Italy Serie D	0-1	3-2	7	5	W
06/09	Oltrepò Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	9	3	W

Pistoiese

WWWWWWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	USD Castellanzese Italy Serie D	4-1	4-2	1	4	W
25/10	Cittadella Vis Modena Italy Serie D	0-2	1-2	7	4	L
18/10	Pavia Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
11/10	Correggese Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
04/10	USD Casatese Italy Serie D	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
27/09	A.C.D. Sant'Angelo Italy Serie D	2-0	3-0	2	2	W
20/09	ASD Varesina Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
16/09	Arconatese Italy Serie D	2-0	5-0	7	2	W
13/09	A.C. Crema 1908 Italy Serie D	–	3-1	–	–	W
06/09	Solbiatese Calcio 1911 Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	9	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pro Patria vs Pistoiese?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pistoiese win (42%). Probabilities: Pro Patria 29%, draw 29%, Pistoiese 42%.

How many goals are expected in Pro Patria vs Pistoiese?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Pro Patria 1.08 · Pistoiese 1.35), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Pro Patria vs Pistoiese?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.