Football · Italy Serie D · 08/11, 14:30

Prediction: ASD Caldiero Terme vs ASD Villa D'Alme

Team pages: ASD Caldiero Terme · ASD Villa D'Alme

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

ASD Caldiero Terme1.36

ASD Villa D'Alme1.08

1X2

43% 29% 29%

ASD Caldiero Terme Draw ASD Villa D'Alme

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

ASD Caldiero Terme 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWDWWLWL

ASD Villa D'Alme 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDDLWDWWDW

Head-to-head

ASD Caldiero Terme 2–1–1 ASD Villa D'Alme (4 last)

ASD Caldiero Terme1-1ASD Villa D'Alme
ASD Villa D'Alme2-1ASD Caldiero Terme
ASD Villa D'Alme2-4ASD Caldiero Terme
ASD Caldiero Terme1-0ASD Villa D'Alme

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ASD Caldiero Terme 1507 · ASD Villa D'Alme 1554

	ASD Caldiero Terme	Draw	ASD Villa D'Alme
Our model	42%	30%	28%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASD Villa D'Alme (rating 1507 vs 1554).
H2H favours ASD Caldiero Terme: 2-1-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ASD Caldiero Terme	ASD Villa D'Alme
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/0/40%	25/63/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.8	3.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:47 +7’	2.10	3.20	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD Caldiero Terme 2–1–1 ASD Villa D'Alme

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Italy Serie D	ASD Caldiero Terme	1-1 HT 1-1	ASD Villa D'Alme
07/12/25 Italy Serie D	ASD Villa D'Alme	2-1 HT 1-1	ASD Caldiero Terme
05/05/24 Italy Serie D	ASD Villa D'Alme	2-4	ASD Caldiero Terme
20/12/23 Italy Serie D	ASD Caldiero Terme	1-0 HT 0-0	ASD Villa D'Alme

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	10	7	2	1	25	7	23
2	Sambiase	10	7	2	1	17	8	23
3	Vibonese	10	6	3	1	22	9	21
4	Calcio Avola 1949	10	6	1	3	16	14	19
5	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	10	5	3	2	16	8	18
6	Milazzo	10	5	1	4	11	12	16
7	Igea Virtus	10	4	3	3	23	21	15
8	ASD Licata	10	4	2	4	10	17	14
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	9	4	2	3	12	10	14
10	Città di Gela	10	3	4	3	11	8	12
11	Nissa FC	10	3	3	4	16	14	12
12	Siracusa	10	5	3	2	17	10	11
13	Vigor Lamezia	10	2	2	6	10	18	8
14	ASD CastrumFavara	10	2	2	6	11	17	8
15	Modica	9	2	1	6	7	12	7
16	Trapani	10	3	2	5	7	14	6
17	ASD Ragusa	10	0	3	7	9	21	3
18	Enna Calcio	10	0	3	7	4	24	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ASD Caldiero Terme	ASD Villa D'Alme
ASD Brusaporto	2-0 W	5-2 W
Pro Palazzo	3-1 W	1-0 W
US Fiorenzuola	1-1 D	0-0 D
Scanzorosciate	1-0 W	0-0 D
Real Calepina FC	2-2 D	3-0 W
AC Leon Monza Brianza	1-1 D	2-1 W
AC Milan U23	3-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: ASD Villa D'Alme (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ASD Caldiero Terme

LDDWDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D	–	1-3	–	–	L
24/10	ASD Brusaporto Italy Serie D	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
18/10	Piacenza Italy Serie D	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
11/10	Pro Palazzo Italy Serie D	2-1	3-1	3	6	W
04/10	ASD Nibbiano e Valtidone Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/09	US Fiorenzuola Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/09	Scanzorosciate Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
16/09	Real Calepina FC Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/09	AC Leon Monza Brianza Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	AC Milan U23 Italy Serie D	1-0	3-4	9	3	L

ASD Villa D'Alme

DDDLWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	ASD Brusaporto Italy Serie D	4-0	5-2	2	3	W
24/10	Scanzorosciate Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
18/10	Pro Palazzo Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	5	0	W
11/10	Real Calepina FC Italy Serie D	–	3-0	–	–	W
04/10	US Fiorenzuola Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
27/09	AC Leon Monza Brianza Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
20/09	AC Milan U23 Italy Serie D	0-0	1-2	11	6	L
16/09	Tritium Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	6	9	D
12/09	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
06/09	Virtus Verona Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ASD Caldiero Terme vs ASD Villa D'Alme?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ASD Caldiero Terme win (43%). Probabilities: ASD Caldiero Terme 43%, draw 29%, ASD Villa D'Alme 29%.

How many goals are expected in ASD Caldiero Terme vs ASD Villa D'Alme?

The model expects 2.44 goals (ASD Caldiero Terme 1.36 · ASD Villa D'Alme 1.08), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in ASD Caldiero Terme vs ASD Villa D'Alme?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.