Football · Italy Serie D · 08/11, 14:30
Prediction: AC Milan U23 vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Team pages: AC Milan U23 · Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.75Total
AC Milan U231.71
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo1.04
1X2
AC Milan U23
Draw
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
AC Milan U23
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AC Milan U23
0–2
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
(2 last)
- AC Milan U230-1Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
- Virtus Ciserano Bergamo1-0AC Milan U23
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AC Milan U23 1538 · Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1481
| AC Milan U23 | Draw | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC Milan U23 (rating 1538 vs 1481).
- H2H favours Virtus Ciserano Bergamo: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AC Milan U23 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/63/13% | 17/67/17% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.3 | 0.7 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.4 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Milan U23 0–0–2 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Italy Serie D | AC Milan U23 | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo |
| 05/10/25 Italy Serie D | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 1-0 | AC Milan U23 |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 7 | 23 |
| 2 | Sambiase | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 19 |
| 5 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Milazzo | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 16 |
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 21 | 15 |
| 8 | ASD Licata | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 14 |
| 9 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 14 |
| 10 | Città di Gela | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
| 11 | Nissa FC | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 12 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 11 |
| 13 | Vigor Lamezia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 8 |
| 14 | ASD CastrumFavara | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 8 |
| 15 | Modica | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| 16 | Trapani | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 6 |
| 17 | ASD Ragusa | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna Calcio | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AC Milan U23 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo |
|---|---|---|
| Virtus Verona | 3-2 W | 3-0 W |
| ASD Calcio Pavonese | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Club Milano | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| AC Chievo Verona | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Rovato Vertovese SSD | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| ASD Villa D'Alme | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 3 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AC Milan U23
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Piacenza Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 01/11 | Virtus Verona Italy Serie D |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 28/10 | ASD Calcio Pavonese Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/10 | Club Milano Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 18/10 | AC Chievo Verona Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | ASD Villa D'Alme Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 16/09 | ASD Brusaporto Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Pro Palazzo Italy Serie D |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 06/09 | ASD Caldiero Terme Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 3 | W |
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Real Calepina FC Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 25/10 | Tritium Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 18/10 | AC Leon Monza Brianza Italy Serie D |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/10 | ASD Nibbiano e Valtidone Italy Serie D |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 04/10 | Virtus Verona Italy Serie D |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/09 | Club Milano Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 21/09 | AC Chievo Verona Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 16/09 | ASD Calcio Pavonese Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | ASD Villa D'Alme Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AC Milan U23 vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Milan U23 win (52%). Probabilities: AC Milan U23 52%, draw 25%, Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 22%.
How many goals are expected in AC Milan U23 vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo?
The model expects 2.75 goals (AC Milan U23 1.71 · Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1.04), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in AC Milan U23 vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.