Prediction: Pistoiese vs Pavia
| Pistoiese | Draw | Pavia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 20% | 8% |
| Market | 73% | 18% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pistoiese (rating 1582 vs 1466).
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pistoiese | Pavia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 67/33/0% | 14/43/43% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 5.7 | 2.7 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0.5 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 16 |
| 2 | Sambiase | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 15 |
| 4 | Vibonese | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | ASD Licata | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| 8 | Milazzo | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 10 |
| 9 | Nissa FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| 10 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| 11 | Siracusa | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Modica | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 7 |
| 13 | ASD CastrumFavara | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 14 | Città di Gela | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 15 | Vigor Lamezia | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 5 |
| 16 | ASD Ragusa | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| 17 | Trapani | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| 18 | Enna Calcio | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 1 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Pistoiese | Pavia |
|---|---|---|
| Correggese | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| USD Casatese | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| A.C.D. Sant'Angelo | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| ASD Varesina | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Arconatese | 5-0 W | 1-1 D |
| A.C. Crema 1908 | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Solbiatese Calcio 1911 | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 7 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 5 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Pistoiese (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pistoiese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Correggese Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 04/10 | USD Casatese Italy Serie D |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/09 | A.C.D. Sant'Angelo Italy Serie D |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 20/09 | ASD Varesina Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/09 | Arconatese Italy Serie D |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | A.C. Crema 1908 Italy Serie D |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 06/09 | Solbiatese Calcio 1911 Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 03/05 | Cittadella Vis Modena Italy Serie D |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Desenzano Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 19/04 | Tropical Coriano Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
Pavia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | ASD Varesina Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 04/10 | Correggese Italy Serie D |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 27/09 | Arconatese Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 20/09 | A.C.D. Sant'Angelo Italy Serie D |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 16/09 | Solbiatese Calcio 1911 Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 06/09 | A.C. Crema 1908 Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | AC Chievo Verona Italy Serie D |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | USD Casatese Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 12/04 | Scanzorosciate Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pistoiese vs Pavia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pistoiese win (72%). Probabilities: Pistoiese 72%, draw 19%, Pavia 9%.
How many goals are expected in Pistoiese vs Pavia?
The model expects 2.55 goals (Pistoiese 2.02 · Pavia 0.54), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Pistoiese vs Pavia?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.