Football · Italy Serie D · 18/10, 15:00
Prediction: ASD Varesina vs Pro Sesto
Team pages: ASD Varesina · Pro Sesto
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.91Total
ASD Varesina1.11
Pro Sesto1.8
1X2
ASD Varesina
Draw
Pro Sesto
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
ASD Varesina
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Pro Sesto
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
ASD Varesina
1–2–3
Pro Sesto
(6 last)
- ASD Varesina1-0Pro Sesto
- Pro Sesto1-0ASD Varesina
- ASD Varesina1-1Pro Sesto
- Pro Sesto2-0ASD Varesina
- ASD Varesina0-0Pro Sesto
- Pro Sesto2-1ASD Varesina
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · ASD Varesina 1494 · Pro Sesto 1537
| ASD Varesina | Draw | Pro Sesto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 25% | 52% |
| Market | 22% | 26% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pro Sesto (rating 1494 vs 1537).
- H2H favours Pro Sesto: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| ASD Varesina | Pro Sesto | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 2.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 1.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/83/17% | 50/25/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.7 | 1.6 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD Varesina 1–2–3 Pro Sesto
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/25 Italy Serie D | ASD Varesina | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Pro Sesto |
| 19/10/24 Italy Serie D | Pro Sesto | 1-0 HT 0-0 | ASD Varesina |
| 13/01/18 Italy Serie D | ASD Varesina | 1-1 | Pro Sesto |
| 10/09/17 Italy Serie D | Pro Sesto | 2-0 HT 2-0 | ASD Varesina |
| 29/01/17 Italy Serie D | ASD Varesina | 0-0 | Pro Sesto |
| 25/09/16 Italy Serie D | Pro Sesto | 2-1 | ASD Varesina |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 16 |
| 2 | Sambiase | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 15 |
| 4 | Vibonese | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | ASD Licata | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| 8 | Milazzo | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 10 |
| 9 | Nissa FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| 10 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| 11 | Siracusa | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Modica | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 7 |
| 13 | ASD CastrumFavara | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 14 | Città di Gela | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 15 | Vigor Lamezia | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 5 |
| 16 | ASD Ragusa | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| 17 | Trapani | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| 18 | Enna Calcio | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
ASD Varesina
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Pavia Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 04/10 | Pro Patria Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 27/09 | USD Casatese Italy Serie D |
– | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 20/09 | Pistoiese Italy Serie D |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/09 | Correggese Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | A.C.D. Sant'Angelo Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Cittadella Vis Modena Italy Serie D |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | ASD Caldiero Terme Italy Serie D |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | US Breno Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | AC Milan U23 Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Pro Sesto
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Solbiatese Calcio 1911 Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 04/10 | Arconatese Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 27/09 | Oltrepò Italy Serie D |
5-0 | 6-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | A.C. Crema 1908 Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/09 | Pontedera Italy Serie D |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Citta di Varese Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Lentigione Italy Serie D |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Correggese Italy Serie D |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Tuttocuoio Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 19/04 | Piacenza Italy Serie D |
0-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in ASD Varesina vs Pro Sesto?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Pro Sesto win (52%). Probabilities: ASD Varesina 22%, draw 26%, Pro Sesto 52%.
How many goals are expected in ASD Varesina vs Pro Sesto?
The model expects 2.91 goals (ASD Varesina 1.11 · Pro Sesto 1.8), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in ASD Varesina vs Pro Sesto?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.