Football · Italy Serie D · 18/10, 15:00

Prediction: AC Chievo Verona vs AC Milan U23

Team pages: AC Chievo Verona · AC Milan U23

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

AC Chievo Verona2.1

AC Milan U231.29

1X2

54% 24% 21%

AC Chievo Verona Draw AC Milan U23

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Chievo Verona 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWWLWD

AC Milan U23 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWLWWL

Head-to-head

AC Chievo Verona 0–1–2 AC Milan U23 (3 last)

AC Chievo Verona1-1AC Milan U23
AC Chievo Verona1-3AC Milan U23
AC Milan U233-2AC Chievo Verona

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Chievo Verona 1539 · AC Milan U23 1522

	AC Chievo Verona	Draw	AC Milan U23
Our model	55%	23%	22%
Market	54%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AC Milan U23: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Chievo Verona	AC Milan U23
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.2	2.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/86/0%	25/63/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.9	2.6 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.50

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:31 +13’	1.67	3.50	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Chievo Verona 0–1–2 AC Milan U23

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Italy Serie D Play-Offs	AC Chievo Verona	1-1 HT 1-0	AC Milan U23
18/01/26 Italy Serie D	AC Chievo Verona	1-3	AC Milan U23
21/09/25 Italy Serie D	AC Milan U23	3-2 HT 1-2	AC Chievo Verona

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	7	5	1	1	16	2	16
2	Sambiase	7	5	1	1	11	5	16
3	Calcio Avola 1949	7	5	0	2	11	10	15
4	Vibonese	7	4	2	1	16	6	14
5	ASD Licata	7	4	2	1	10	9	14
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	7	3	3	1	13	5	12
7	Igea Virtus	7	3	2	2	16	14	11
8	Milazzo	7	3	1	3	6	9	10
9	Nissa FC	7	2	3	2	10	10	9
10	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
11	Siracusa	7	4	2	1	11	5	7
12	Modica	7	2	1	4	7	10	7
13	ASD CastrumFavara	7	2	1	4	8	9	7
14	Città di Gela	7	1	3	3	5	7	5
15	Vigor Lamezia	7	1	2	4	7	16	5
16	ASD Ragusa	7	0	3	4	5	10	3
17	Trapani	7	2	0	5	3	11	1
18	Enna Calcio	7	0	1	6	0	17	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Chievo Verona

DWDWWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Virtus Verona Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Tritium Italy Serie D	1-0	5-0	7	6	W
27/09	ASD Nibbiano e Valtidone Italy Serie D	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
21/09	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
16/09	Club Milano Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	4	8	W
12/09	Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D	–	4-3	–	–	W
05/09	ASD Calcio Pavonese Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
17/05	USD Casatese Italy Serie D	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
03/05	Pavia Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/04	AC Leon Monza Brianza Italy Serie D	1-1	2-2	7	6	D

AC Milan U23

LWLWWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
20/09	ASD Villa D'Alme Italy Serie D	0-0	2-1	2	6	W
16/09	ASD Brusaporto Italy Serie D	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
12/09	Pro Palazzo Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L
06/09	ASD Caldiero Terme Italy Serie D	0-1	4-3	3	3	W
03/05	AVC Vogherese 1919 Italy Serie D	5-0	10-1	12	2	W
26/04	USD Castellanzese Italy Serie D	1-1	3-1	5	4	W
19/04	ASD Varesina Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
12/04	ASD Brusaporto Italy Serie D	–	4-0	–	–	W
08/04	Real Calepina FC Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Chievo Verona vs AC Milan U23?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Chievo Verona win (54%). Probabilities: AC Chievo Verona 54%, draw 24%, AC Milan U23 21%.

How many goals are expected in AC Chievo Verona vs AC Milan U23?

The model expects 3.39 goals (AC Chievo Verona 2.1 · AC Milan U23 1.29), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Chievo Verona vs AC Milan U23?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.