Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 20/09, 12:00

Prediction: Covadonga vs Caudal

Team pages: Covadonga · Caudal

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Covadonga1.64

Caudal1.42

1X2

41% 27% 32%

Covadonga Draw Caudal

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Covadonga 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLDWD

Caudal 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLWDWW

Head-to-head

Covadonga 1–1–4 Caudal (6 last)

Covadonga2-4Caudal
Caudal2-1Covadonga
Caudal2-1Covadonga
Covadonga1-0Caudal
Covadonga1-1Caudal
Caudal1-0Covadonga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Covadonga 1530 · Caudal 1554

	Covadonga	Draw	Caudal
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Caudal: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Covadonga	Caudal
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 0.7	1.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.6	0.8 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/44/22%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.20▲	Pinn 2.50 ★
X	3.30 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
2	3.20 → 2.88▼	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:17 +1’	2.00	3.30	3.20
00:07 +3’	2.20▲	3.20▼	2.88▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +6’	2.21	3.03	3.10
00:03 +8’	2.56▲	3.13▲	2.54▼
00:12 +60’	2.48▼	3.09▼	2.64▲
03:46 +20’	2.50▲	3.09	2.62▼
04:31 +74’	2.47▼	3.09	2.66▲
10:01 +2’	2.50▲	3.13▲	2.69▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Covadonga 1–1–4 Caudal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	Covadonga	2-4 HT 0-2	Caudal
31/05/26 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	Caudal	2-1 HT 1-1	Covadonga
22/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	Caudal	2-1 HT 1-1	Covadonga
09/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Covadonga	1-0 HT 0-0	Caudal
01/08/25 Europe Friendlies	Covadonga	1-1 HT 0-0	Caudal
27/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Caudal	1-0 HT 0-0	Covadonga

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mosconia	2	2	0	0	7	1	6
2	Condal	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
3	Caudal	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
4	Sporting Gijon B	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
5	CD Colunga	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
6	Covadonga	2	1	1	0	6	2	4
7	Praviano	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
8	Lealtad	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Siero	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
10	UC Ceares	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
11	Gijon Industrial	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
12	L'Entregu CF	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
13	UP Langreo	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
14	Andes CF	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
15	Oviedo Astur	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
16	Aviles Stadium CF	2	0	0	2	0	5	0
17	Llanes	2	0	0	2	2	8	0
18	El San Martin	2	0	0	2	0	6	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Covadonga	Caudal
Sporting Gijon B	5-0 W	0-0 D
UC Ceares	6-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Covadonga (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Covadonga

WWWWWWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2	1-2	2-2	6	8	D
06/09	Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	4-0	6	4	W
17/05	Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
09/05	Real Titanico Laviana Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
03/05	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	–	4-1	–	–	W
26/04	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	4-0	5-0	5	5	W
18/04	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	3-0	4-0	1	4	W
12/04	CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
02/04	Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
28/03	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	4-1	6-1	4	1	W

Caudal

LWWWWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
06/09	Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
17/05	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
10/05	Tuilla Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-1	–	–	W
03/05	Siero Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
26/04	SD Navarro CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/04	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	4-1	7	2	W
12/04	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
02/04	Lenense Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	4-1	5	4	W
28/03	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-1	1	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Covadonga vs Caudal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Covadonga win (41%). Probabilities: Covadonga 41%, draw 27%, Caudal 32%.

How many goals are expected in Covadonga vs Caudal?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Covadonga 1.64 · Caudal 1.42), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Covadonga vs Caudal?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.