Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 20/09, 17:00

Prediction: UC Ceares vs CD Colunga

Team pages: UC Ceares · CD Colunga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

UC Ceares1.64

CD Colunga1.2

1X2

46% 27% 27%

UC Ceares Draw CD Colunga

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

UC Ceares 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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CD Colunga 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLDLLWW

Head-to-head

UC Ceares 3–1–2 CD Colunga (6 last)

UC Ceares1-3CD Colunga
CD Colunga1-0UC Ceares
UC Ceares2-0CD Colunga
CD Colunga1-2UC Ceares
CD Colunga1-2UC Ceares
UC Ceares1-1CD Colunga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UC Ceares 1467 · CD Colunga 1484

	UC Ceares	Draw	CD Colunga
Our model	46%	27%	27%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours UC Ceares: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UC Ceares	CD Colunga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.7	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/17/67%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.8	3 / 1.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.25

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.95
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.64 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +22’	1.95	3.25	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +245’	1.95	3.14	3.64

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UC Ceares 3–1–2 CD Colunga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	UC Ceares	1-3	CD Colunga
28/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	CD Colunga	1-0	UC Ceares
13/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	UC Ceares	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Colunga
01/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	CD Colunga	1-2	UC Ceares
05/05/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	CD Colunga	1-2	UC Ceares
13/01/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	UC Ceares	1-1 HT 1-0	CD Colunga

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mosconia	2	2	0	0	7	1	6
2	Condal	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
3	Caudal	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
4	Sporting Gijon B	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
5	CD Colunga	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
6	Covadonga	2	1	1	0	6	2	4
7	Praviano	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
8	Lealtad	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Siero	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
10	UC Ceares	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
11	Gijon Industrial	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
12	L'Entregu CF	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
13	UP Langreo	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
14	Andes CF	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
15	Oviedo Astur	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
16	Aviles Stadium CF	2	0	0	2	0	5	0
17	Llanes	2	0	0	2	2	8	0
18	El San Martin	2	0	0	2	0	6	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UC Ceares	CD Colunga
Gijon Industrial	1-2 L	2-6 L
Praviano	3-2 W	0-2 L
Lenense	2-4 L	3-3 D
El San Martin	0-1 L	2-3 L
Covadonga	1-6 L	0-2 L
Aviles Stadium CF	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: CD Colunga (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UC Ceares

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
06/09	UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2	2-1	2-1	1	8	W
10/05	Siero Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	SD Navarro CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-0	–	–	W
26/04	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/04	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-2	–	–	W
12/04	Lenense Spain Tercera Group 2	2-2	2-4	0	5	L
03/04	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
28/03	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	1-4	1-6	6	1	L
22/03	Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-2	8	4	L

CD Colunga

WLDLLDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Oviedo Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
06/09	Andes CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/05	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	1-3	2-6	1	6	L
03/05	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/04	Lenense Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-3	–	–	D
19/04	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-3	–	–	L
12/04	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
02/04	Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-0	–	–	D
29/03	UD Llanera Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
22/03	Real Titanico Laviana Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UC Ceares vs CD Colunga?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UC Ceares win (46%). Probabilities: UC Ceares 46%, draw 27%, CD Colunga 27%.

How many goals are expected in UC Ceares vs CD Colunga?

The model expects 2.85 goals (UC Ceares 1.64 · CD Colunga 1.2), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in UC Ceares vs CD Colunga?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.