Football · Spain Tercera Group 8 · 05/09, 18:00

Prediction: Cristo Atletico vs At. Bembibre

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Cristo Atletico1.8

At. Bembibre0.83

1X2

59% 24% 16%

Cristo Atletico Draw At. Bembibre

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Cristo Atletico 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWWLW

At. Bembibre 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDLDDDWL

Head-to-head

Cristo Atletico 4–2–0 At. Bembibre (6 last)

Cristo Atletico2-0At. Bembibre
At. Bembibre0-1Cristo Atletico
At. Bembibre1-1Cristo Atletico
Cristo Atletico2-1At. Bembibre
Cristo Atletico1-1At. Bembibre
At. Bembibre1-2Cristo Atletico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cristo Atletico 1589 · At. Bembibre 1468

	Cristo Atletico	Draw	At. Bembibre
Our model	59%	25%	16%
Market	60%	24%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cristo Atletico (rating 1589 vs 1468).
H2H favours Cristo Atletico: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cristo Atletico	At. Bembibre
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.7	1.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	1.2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	50/17/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	0.8 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0	2.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.70

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:19 +22’	1.50	3.70	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cristo Atletico 4–2–0 At. Bembibre

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 8	Cristo Atletico	2-0 HT 1-0	At. Bembibre
26/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 8	At. Bembibre	0-1 HT 0-0	Cristo Atletico
23/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 8	At. Bembibre	1-1 HT 0-1	Cristo Atletico
03/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 8	Cristo Atletico	2-1 HT 0-0	At. Bembibre
04/02/24 Spain Tercera Group 8	Cristo Atletico	1-1 HT 1-0	At. Bembibre
16/09/23 Spain Tercera Group 8	At. Bembibre	1-2 HT 1-1	Cristo Atletico

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 8

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arandina	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Burgos Promesas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	At. Bembibre	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Atletico Mansilles	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Calasanz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Colegios Diocesanos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guijuelo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mirandes B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cristo Atletico	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Villaralbo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Virgen Del Camino	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cultural Leonesa B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CDA Palencia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Salamanca B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Almazan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Turegano CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD Santa Marta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Unionistas de Salamanca CF B	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cristo Atletico	At. Bembibre
CDA Palencia	1-0 W	1-4 L
Becerril	1-1 D	4-1 W
Arandina	2-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cristo Atletico (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cristo Atletico

WWDWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	CD Colegios Diocesanos Spain Tercera Group 8	–	2-1	–	–	W
02/05	Unionistas de Salamanca CF B Spain Tercera Group 8	–	0-1	–	–	L
26/04	Guijuelo Spain Tercera Group 8	–	2-1	–	–	W
18/04	Cultural Leonesa B Spain Tercera Group 8	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
11/04	CD Mojados Spain Tercera Group 8	–	2-1	–	–	W
04/04	Almazan Spain Tercera Group 8	–	4-2	–	–	W
28/03	CDA Palencia Spain Tercera Group 8	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
22/03	Becerril Spain Tercera Group 8	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
14/03	Arandina Spain Tercera Group 8	–	2-0	–	–	W
07/03	At. Bembibre Spain Tercera Group 8	1-0	2-0	4	4	W

At. Bembibre

LWLDLDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	CDA Palencia Spain Tercera Group 8	1-1	1-4	3	0	L
02/05	Becerril Spain Tercera Group 8	3-1	4-1	4	3	W
26/04	Arandina Spain Tercera Group 8	–	3-3	–	–	D
18/04	Mirandes B Spain Tercera Group 8	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/04	UD Santa Marta Spain Tercera Group 8	1-0	2-2	7	4	D
05/04	CD Virgen Del Camino Spain Tercera Group 8	1-3	1-3	2	0	L
28/03	CD Atletico Mansilles Spain Tercera Group 8	–	1-1	–	–	D
21/03	Atletico Tordesillas Spain Tercera Group 8	–	1-4	–	–	L
14/03	Numancia B Spain Tercera Group 8	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
07/03	Cristo Atletico Spain Tercera Group 8	0-1	0-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cristo Atletico vs At. Bembibre?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cristo Atletico win (59%). Probabilities: Cristo Atletico 59%, draw 24%, At. Bembibre 16%.

How many goals are expected in Cristo Atletico vs At. Bembibre?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Cristo Atletico 1.8 · At. Bembibre 0.83), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cristo Atletico vs At. Bembibre?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.