Football · Spain Tercera Group 5 · 11/10, 18:00

Prediction: Badalona vs Vilanova Geltru

Team pages: Badalona · Vilanova Geltru

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Badalona1.81

Vilanova Geltru0.84

1X2

59% 24% 16%

Badalona Draw Vilanova Geltru

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Badalona 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLLWWW

Vilanova Geltru 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWWLDWDW

Head-to-head

Badalona 1–1 Vilanova Geltru (2 last)

Badalona3-0Vilanova Geltru
Vilanova Geltru2-1Badalona

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Badalona 1497 · Vilanova Geltru 1549

	Badalona	Draw	Vilanova Geltru
Our model	59%	25%	16%
Market	60%	24%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vilanova Geltru (rating 1497 vs 1549).
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Badalona	Vilanova Geltru
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/33/44%	38/38/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	1.6 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.70

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.50▼	Pinn 1.52 ★
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
2	4.60 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:44 +5’	1.61	3.60	4.60
23:11 +3’	1.50▼	3.70▲	5.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:16 +69’	1.50	3.74	5.58
00:23 +18’	1.52▲	3.69▼	5.44▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Badalona 1–0–1 Vilanova Geltru

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 5	Badalona	3-0	Vilanova Geltru
08/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 5	Vilanova Geltru	2-1 HT 0-1	Badalona

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CF Montanesa	4	3	0	1	5	1	9
2	Badalona	5	3	0	2	10	4	9
3	CE Europa B	5	2	2	1	10	6	8
4	Vilanova Geltru	4	2	2	0	7	5	8
5	Atletic Lleida	6	2	2	2	7	8	8
6	FE Grama	4	2	1	1	6	3	7
7	Pobla Mafumet	5	2	1	2	8	7	7
8	FC L'Escala	5	2	1	2	8	7	7
9	CE L'Hospitalet	4	1	3	0	6	4	6
9	UE Cornella	4	1	3	0	6	4	6
11	UE San Juan Montcada	5	2	0	3	5	10	6
12	Peralada	4	1	2	1	5	3	5
13	FC Martinenc	4	1	2	1	8	8	5
14	Cerdanyola del Valles FC	4	1	2	1	4	5	5
15	CFJ Mollerussa	4	1	1	2	2	3	4
16	CP San Cristobal	4	1	1	2	4	8	4
17	UE Vilassar de Mar	6	1	1	4	5	15	4
18	UE Tona	5	1	0	4	4	9	3

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Badalona	Vilanova Geltru
UE Vilassar de Mar	2-0 W	0-1 L
CE L'Hospitalet	3-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Badalona (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Badalona

LLLWWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	UE Tona Spain Tercera Group 5	1-1	3-1	2	5	W
27/09	CP San Cristobal Spain Tercera Group 5	4-0	4-0	4	8	W
20/09	UE Vilassar de Mar Spain Tercera Group 5	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
12/09	CF Montanesa Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
05/09	FC Martinenc Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
10/05	UE Vic Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
03/05	CE L'Hospitalet Spain Tercera Group 5	–	3-2	–	–	W
26/04	CE Manresa Spain Tercera Group 5	0-2	1-4	5	3	L
19/04	CE Europa B Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
12/04	FE Grama Spain Tercera Group 5	0-2	0-2	4	5	L

Vilanova Geltru

DLWWWLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Pobla Mafumet Spain Tercera Group 5	2-1	3-2	5	9	W
19/09	Peralada Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
13/09	CFJ Mollerussa Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	CE L'Hospitalet Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	2-2	0	7	D
17/05	UE Cornella Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
10/05	Lleida Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	2-1	9	7	W
03/05	CF Can Vidalet Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
26/04	FC L'Escala Spain Tercera Group 5	–	2-1	–	–	W
18/04	UE Vilassar de Mar Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
12/04	CFJ Mollerussa Spain Tercera Group 5	2-1	2-2	0	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Badalona vs Vilanova Geltru?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Badalona win (59%). Probabilities: Badalona 59%, draw 24%, Vilanova Geltru 16%.

How many goals are expected in Badalona vs Vilanova Geltru?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Badalona 1.81 · Vilanova Geltru 0.84), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Badalona vs Vilanova Geltru?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.