Football · Spain Tercera Group 5 · 19/09, 18:00

Prediction: Vilanova Geltru vs Peralada

Team pages: Vilanova Geltru · Peralada

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Vilanova Geltru1.36

Peralada0.89

1X2

47% 29% 24%

Vilanova Geltru Draw Peralada

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Vilanova Geltru 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWWLDW

Peralada 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDDWDL

Head-to-head

Vilanova Geltru 1–1 Peralada (2 last)

Vilanova Geltru2-1Peralada
Peralada1-0Vilanova Geltru

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vilanova Geltru 1545 · Peralada 1461

	Vilanova Geltru	Draw	Peralada
Our model	46%	30%	23%
Market	47%	28%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vilanova Geltru (rating 1545 vs 1461).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vilanova Geltru	Peralada
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/43/29%	40/0/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.4	1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.20

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
2	3.20 → 3.70▲	Pinn 4.25 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:35 +44’	2.10	3.10	3.20
22:51 +2’	1.90▼	3.20▲	3.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:12 +281’	1.82	3.11	4.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vilanova Geltru 1–0–1 Peralada

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 5	Vilanova Geltru	2-1 HT 0-0	Peralada
19/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 5	Peralada	1-0 HT 0-0	Vilanova Geltru

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CF Montanesa	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
2	CE L'Hospitalet	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
3	Vilanova Geltru	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
4	FC Martinenc	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
4	FE Grama	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
6	UE Cornella	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
7	UE San Juan Montcada	2	1	0	1	2	4	3
8	CFJ Mollerussa	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
9	UE Vilassar de Mar	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	FC L'Escala	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
11	Pobla Mafumet	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
12	UE Tona	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
13	CP San Cristobal	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Peralada	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
15	Cerdanyola del Valles FC	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
16	CE Europa B	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
17	Atletic Lleida	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
18	Badalona	2	0	0	2	1	3	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vilanova Geltru	Peralada
CE L'Hospitalet	2-2 D	0-3 L
CF Can Vidalet	1-0 W	1-1 D
CP San Cristobal	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Vilanova Geltru (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vilanova Geltru

WDDLWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	CFJ Mollerussa Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	CE L'Hospitalet Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	2-2	0	7	D
17/05	UE Cornella Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
10/05	Lleida Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	2-1	9	7	W
03/05	CF Can Vidalet Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
26/04	FC L'Escala Spain Tercera Group 5	–	2-1	–	–	W
18/04	UE Vilassar de Mar Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
12/04	CFJ Mollerussa Spain Tercera Group 5	2-1	2-2	0	4	D
02/04	CP San Cristobal Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
29/03	UE Cornella Spain Tercera Group 5	–	2-0	–	–	W

Peralada

LLLLWDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	UE Tona Spain Tercera Group 5	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/09	CP San Cristobal Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
10/05	CF Montanesa Spain Tercera Group 5	–	5-0	–	–	W
03/05	Cerdanyola del Valles FC Spain Tercera Group 5	0-2	2-2	3	1	D
26/04	CF Can Vidalet Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	UE Vic Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/04	CE L'Hospitalet Spain Tercera Group 5	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
02/04	CE Manresa Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	3-4	7	7	L
29/03	CE Europa B Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
22/03	FE Grama Spain Tercera Group 5	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vilanova Geltru vs Peralada?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vilanova Geltru win (47%). Probabilities: Vilanova Geltru 47%, draw 29%, Peralada 24%.

How many goals are expected in Vilanova Geltru vs Peralada?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Vilanova Geltru 1.36 · Peralada 0.89), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Vilanova Geltru vs Peralada?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.