Football · Spain Tercera Group 5 · 27/09, 16:30
Prediction: Peralada vs Lleida
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
Peralada1.48
Lleida1.16
1X2
Peralada
Draw
Lleida
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Peralada
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Lleida
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Peralada
2–1–3
Lleida
(6 last)
- Peralada3-0Lleida
- Lleida0-2Peralada
- Lleida2-0Peralada
- Peralada1-2Lleida
- Lleida1-1Peralada
- Peralada0-1Lleida
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Peralada 1498 · Lleida 1419
| Peralada | Draw | Lleida | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market | 43% | 29% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Peralada (rating 1498 vs 1419).
- H2H favours Lleida: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Peralada | Lleida | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.5 | 0.6 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/17/50% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.8 / 4.2 | 2.3 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.5 | 4.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Peralada 2–1–3 Lleida
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 5 | Peralada | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Lleida |
| 26/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 5 | Lleida | 0-2 | Peralada |
| 21/04/19 Spain Segunda B Group 3 | Lleida | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Peralada |
| 02/12/18 Spain Segunda B Group 3 | Peralada | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Lleida |
| 21/01/18 Spain Segunda B Group 3 | Lleida | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Peralada |
| 03/09/17 Spain Segunda B Group 3 | Peralada | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Lleida |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 5
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Montanesa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Pobla Mafumet | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | CE L'Hospitalet | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 4 | Vilanova Geltru | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 5 | UE Cornella | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 6 | FC Martinenc | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 7 | CP San Cristobal | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 8 | FE Grama | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Atletic Lleida | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | Cerdanyola del Valles FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Badalona | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | UE San Juan Montcada | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | CFJ Mollerussa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | FC L'Escala | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | UE Tona | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 16 | UE Vilassar de Mar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Peralada | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 18 | CE Europa B | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Peralada | Lleida |
|---|---|---|
| Vilanova Geltru | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| CP San Cristobal | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| CF Montanesa | 5-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Cerdanyola del Valles FC | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 0 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Peralada (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Peralada
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Vilanova Geltru Spain Tercera Group 5 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | UE Tona Spain Tercera Group 5 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 06/09 | CP San Cristobal Spain Tercera Group 5 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | CF Montanesa Spain Tercera Group 5 |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Cerdanyola del Valles FC Spain Tercera Group 5 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 26/04 | CF Can Vidalet Spain Tercera Group 5 |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 19/04 | UE Vic Spain Tercera Group 5 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | CE L'Hospitalet Spain Tercera Group 5 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 02/04 | CE Manresa Spain Tercera Group 5 |
1-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 29/03 | CE Europa B Spain Tercera Group 5 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Lleida
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05 | Vilanova Geltru Spain Tercera Group 5 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | FC L'Escala Spain Tercera Group 5 |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | UE Vilassar de Mar Spain Tercera Group 5 |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 19/04 | CFJ Mollerussa Spain Tercera Group 5 |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 12/04 | CP San Cristobal Spain Tercera Group 5 |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 03/04 | UE Cornella Spain Tercera Group 5 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 29/03 | Badalona Spain Tercera Group 5 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 22/03 | CF Montanesa Spain Tercera Group 5 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 14/03 | Cerdanyola del Valles FC Spain Tercera Group 5 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 08/03 | Peralada Spain Tercera Group 5 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Peralada vs Lleida?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Peralada win (43%). Probabilities: Peralada 43%, draw 29%, Lleida 28%.
How many goals are expected in Peralada vs Lleida?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Peralada 1.48 · Lleida 1.16), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Peralada vs Lleida?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.