Football · Spain Tercera Group 18 · 08/11, 16:30

Prediction: Toledo vs Marchamalo

Team pages: Toledo · Marchamalo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Toledo2.08

Marchamalo1.08

1X2

60% 23% 18%

Toledo Draw Marchamalo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Toledo 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLWWWLWW

Marchamalo 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDLDLWLD

Head-to-head

Toledo 5–1–0 Marchamalo (6 last)

Marchamalo0-2Toledo
Toledo3-1Marchamalo
Marchamalo0-1Toledo
Toledo2-0Marchamalo
Marchamalo0-0Toledo
Toledo4-0Marchamalo

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toledo (rating 1582 vs 1486).
H2H favours Toledo: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toledo	Marchamalo
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/43/14%	43/43/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.1	2.8 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.4	4.7 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.89

Under 2.751.86

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:16

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Pinn 1.27
X	5.01 → 5.01	Pinn 5.01
2	9.07 → 9.07	Pinn 9.07

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
05:41 +34’	1.27	5.01	9.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Toledo 5–1–0 Marchamalo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 18	Marchamalo	0-2	Toledo
27/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Toledo	3-1 HT 1-1	Marchamalo
04/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Marchamalo	0-1	Toledo
21/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 18	Toledo	2-0	Marchamalo
25/02/24 Spain Tercera Group 18	Marchamalo	0-0	Toledo
08/10/23 Spain Tercera Group 18	Toledo	4-0	Marchamalo

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 18

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Manchego CR	9	7	0	2	14	7	21
2	Toledo	9	6	1	2	20	10	19
3	CD Villacanas	10	5	3	2	19	10	18
4	Villarrobledo	9	4	5	0	11	3	17
5	CD Tarancon	9	4	3	2	16	11	15
6	CD Villa	9	5	0	4	10	12	15
7	CD Torrijos	9	4	2	3	10	8	14
8	Illescas	9	4	2	3	12	12	14
9	CD Noblejas	9	4	2	3	16	15	14
10	Almansa	9	3	3	3	13	10	12
11	AD San Clemente	9	3	3	3	16	17	12
12	Marchamalo	9	3	3	3	16	16	12
13	Villarrubia CF	9	2	4	3	10	12	10
14	La Solana	9	3	0	6	7	11	9
15	Socuéllamos	9	1	4	4	5	9	7
16	Huracan Balazote	9	2	1	6	8	18	7
17	CD Quintanar del Rey	9	1	3	5	11	18	6
18	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	10	0	3	7	9	24	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toledo	Marchamalo
AD San Clemente	3-2 W	1-3 L
Almansa	2-0 W	1-3 L
CD Manchego CR	0-1 L	2-3 L
Huracan Balazote	3-1 W	2-0 W
CD Quintanar del Rey	4-2 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Toledo (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toledo

DWDLWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	3-2	–	–	W
25/10	Almansa Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
17/10	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
11/10	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
03/10	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-1	–	–	W
27/09	La Solana Spain Tercera Group 18	2-0	4-0	11	4	W
19/09	CD Noblejas Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
12/09	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	4-2	7	3	W
17/05	Albacete B Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-0	1	8	D

Marchamalo

LWWDLDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Tercera Group 18	–	3-3	–	–	D
25/10	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-3	–	–	L
17/10	Socuéllamos Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-0	6	12	W
10/10	Almansa Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	1-3	7	7	L
03/10	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-2	–	–	D
27/09	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	2-3	4	4	L
20/09	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	2-2	14	5	D
13/09	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
05/09	CD Villa Spain Tercera Group 18	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
10/05	CD Sonseca Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-1	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toledo vs Marchamalo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Toledo win (60%). Probabilities: Toledo 60%, draw 23%, Marchamalo 18%.

How many goals are expected in Toledo vs Marchamalo?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Toledo 2.08 · Marchamalo 1.08), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Toledo vs Marchamalo?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.