Football · Spain Tercera Group 18 · 15/11, 16:30

Prediction: Toledo vs Villarrobledo

Team pages: Toledo · Villarrobledo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Toledo1.55

Villarrobledo0.66

1X2

59% 26% 15%

Toledo Draw Villarrobledo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Toledo 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWLWWW

Villarrobledo 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWDDWDL

Head-to-head

Toledo 4–2–0 Villarrobledo (6 last)

Villarrobledo0-0Toledo
Toledo3-1Villarrobledo
Villarrobledo0-1Toledo
Toledo1-0Villarrobledo
Toledo1-0Villarrobledo
Villarrobledo1-1Toledo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toledo 1577 · Villarrobledo 1525

	Toledo	Draw	Villarrobledo
Our model	58%	28%	15%
Market	60%	24%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toledo (rating 1577 vs 1525).
H2H favours Toledo: 4-2-0.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toledo	Villarrobledo
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1	1.1 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/33/17%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 5.8	4.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.5	5.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.70

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:28	1.50	3.70	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Toledo 4–2–0 Villarrobledo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrobledo	0-0	Toledo
16/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Toledo	3-1 HT 1-0	Villarrobledo
06/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrobledo	0-1 HT 0-1	Toledo
24/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 18	Toledo	1-0 HT 0-0	Villarrobledo
05/05/24 Spain Tercera Group 18	Toledo	1-0 HT 0-0	Villarrobledo
14/01/24 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrobledo	1-1 HT 0-0	Toledo

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 18

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Manchego CR	10	8	0	2	18	8	24
2	Toledo	10	7	1	2	22	10	22
3	CD Villacanas	10	5	3	2	19	10	18
4	CD Villa	10	6	0	4	15	13	18
5	Villarrobledo	10	4	5	1	11	5	17
6	Illescas	10	5	2	3	13	12	17
7	CD Tarancon	10	4	3	3	16	13	15
8	AD San Clemente	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
9	CD Torrijos	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
10	CD Noblejas	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
11	Villarrubia CF	10	3	4	3	12	13	13
12	Almansa	10	3	3	4	13	11	12
13	Marchamalo	10	3	3	4	16	18	12
14	La Solana	10	4	0	6	9	11	12
15	Socuéllamos	10	2	4	4	7	9	10
16	Huracan Balazote	10	2	1	7	9	23	7
17	CD Quintanar del Rey	10	1	3	6	12	20	6
18	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	10	0	3	7	9	24	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toledo	Villarrobledo
AD San Clemente	3-2 W	0-2 L
Almansa	2-0 W	1-1 D
CD Manchego CR	0-1 L	1-0 W
Huracan Balazote	3-1 W	1-1 D
CD Villacanas	2-1 W	0-0 D
La Solana	4-0 W	1-0 W
CD Noblejas	1-2 L	2-0 W
Villarrubia CF	1-1 D	4-0 W
CD Quintanar del Rey	4-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Toledo (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toledo

WDLWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Marchamalo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-0	–	–	W
31/10	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	3-2	–	–	W
25/10	Almansa Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
17/10	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
11/10	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
03/10	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-1	–	–	W
27/09	La Solana Spain Tercera Group 18	2-0	4-0	11	4	W
19/09	CD Noblejas Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
12/09	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	4-2	7	3	W

Villarrobledo

DDWWWDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-2	–	–	L
01/11	Almansa Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/10	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/10	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/10	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	La Solana Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
27/09	CD Noblejas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	3-0	4-0	3	6	W
13/09	CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	1-1	10	8	D
06/09	Socuéllamos Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toledo vs Villarrobledo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Toledo win (59%). Probabilities: Toledo 59%, draw 26%, Villarrobledo 15%.

How many goals are expected in Toledo vs Villarrobledo?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Toledo 1.55 · Villarrobledo 0.66), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Toledo vs Villarrobledo?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.