Football · Spain Tercera Group 18 · 14/11, 19:00

Prediction: CD Noblejas vs CD Quintanar del Rey

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

CD Noblejas1.71

CD Quintanar del Rey1.46

1X2

42% 26% 32%

CD Noblejas Draw CD Quintanar del Rey

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Noblejas 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLWWDL

CD Quintanar del Rey 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDDLLWLLDL

Head-to-head

CD Noblejas 1–1 CD Quintanar del Rey (2 last)

CD Noblejas0-2CD Quintanar del Rey
CD Quintanar del Rey2-3CD Noblejas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Noblejas 1499 · CD Quintanar del Rey 1436

	CD Noblejas	Draw	CD Quintanar del Rey
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Noblejas (rating 1499 vs 1436).
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Noblejas	CD Quintanar del Rey
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/17/33%	29/43/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	1.6 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.5 / 0.5	5.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:04 +6’	2.15	3.30	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Noblejas 1–0–1 CD Quintanar del Rey

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	CD Noblejas	0-2 HT 0-1	CD Quintanar del Rey
14/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 18	CD Quintanar del Rey	2-3 HT 0-3	CD Noblejas

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 18

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Manchego CR	10	8	0	2	18	8	24
2	Toledo	10	7	1	2	22	10	22
3	CD Villacanas	10	5	3	2	19	10	18
4	CD Villa	10	6	0	4	15	13	18
5	Villarrobledo	10	4	5	1	11	5	17
6	Illescas	10	5	2	3	13	12	17
7	CD Tarancon	10	4	3	3	16	13	15
8	AD San Clemente	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
9	CD Torrijos	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
10	CD Noblejas	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
11	Villarrubia CF	10	3	4	3	12	13	13
12	Almansa	10	3	3	4	13	11	12
13	Marchamalo	10	3	3	4	16	18	12
14	La Solana	10	4	0	6	9	11	12
15	Socuéllamos	10	2	4	4	7	9	10
16	Huracan Balazote	10	2	1	7	9	23	7
17	CD Quintanar del Rey	10	1	3	6	12	20	6
18	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	10	0	3	7	9	24	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Noblejas	CD Quintanar del Rey
Socuéllamos	0-2 L	1-2 L
CD Tarancon	2-2 D	1-2 L
CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	4-1 W	1-0 W
CD Villa	3-0 W	0-2 L
CD Torrijos	0-4 L	0-2 L
Illescas	1-2 L	2-2 D
Villarrobledo	0-2 L	1-1 D
Toledo	2-1 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Noblejas

WDWLLLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Socuéllamos Spain Tercera Group 18	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
31/10	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	2-2	4	10	D
24/10	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
17/10	CD Villa Spain Tercera Group 18	2-0	3-0	2	7	W
11/10	CD Torrijos Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-4	–	–	L
03/10	Illescas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-2	–	–	L
27/09	Villarrobledo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-2	–	–	L
19/09	Toledo Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
13/09	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Almansa Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	3-2	5	9	W

CD Quintanar del Rey

LDDLLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-2	–	–	L
31/10	Marchamalo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	3-3	–	–	D
25/10	Socuéllamos Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
18/10	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/10	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
04/10	CD Villa Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
27/09	CD Torrijos Spain Tercera Group 18	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
20/09	Illescas Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	2-2	6	7	D
13/09	Villarrobledo Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	1-1	0	8	D
06/09	Toledo Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	2-4	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Noblejas vs CD Quintanar del Rey?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Noblejas win (42%). Probabilities: CD Noblejas 42%, draw 26%, CD Quintanar del Rey 32%.

How many goals are expected in CD Noblejas vs CD Quintanar del Rey?

The model expects 3.17 goals (CD Noblejas 1.71 · CD Quintanar del Rey 1.46), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Noblejas vs CD Quintanar del Rey?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.