Football · Spain Tercera Group 18 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: Almansa vs CD Torrijos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Almansa1.46

CD Torrijos0.96

1X2

48% 28% 24%

Almansa Draw CD Torrijos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Almansa 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWDLDL

CD Torrijos 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWLLLL

Head-to-head

Almansa 1–1–1 CD Torrijos (3 last)

CD Torrijos0-1Almansa
Almansa0-2CD Torrijos
Almansa2-2CD Torrijos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Almansa 1493 · CD Torrijos 1480

	Almansa	Draw	CD Torrijos
Our model	48%	29%	24%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Almansa	CD Torrijos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/44/44%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	2.2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.4	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 1.83▼	Bet365 1.83
X	3.25 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	3.10 → 3.60▲	Pinn 4.22 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:41 +53’	2.05	3.25	3.10
14:03 +5’	1.83▼	3.40▲	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:32 +2’	1.78	3.33	4.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Almansa 1–1–1 CD Torrijos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/22 Spain Tercera Group 18	CD Torrijos	0-1	Almansa
04/12/21 Spain Tercera Group 18	Almansa	0-2	CD Torrijos
21/12/19 Spain Tercera Group 18	Almansa	2-2	CD Torrijos

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 18

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Manchego CR	10	8	0	2	18	8	24
2	Toledo	10	7	1	2	22	10	22
3	CD Villacanas	10	5	3	2	19	10	18
4	CD Villa	10	6	0	4	15	13	18
5	Villarrobledo	10	4	5	1	11	5	17
6	Illescas	10	5	2	3	13	12	17
7	CD Tarancon	10	4	3	3	16	13	15
8	AD San Clemente	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
9	CD Torrijos	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
10	CD Noblejas	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
11	Villarrubia CF	10	3	4	3	12	13	13
12	Almansa	10	3	3	4	13	11	12
13	Marchamalo	10	3	3	4	16	18	12
14	La Solana	10	4	0	6	9	11	12
15	Socuéllamos	10	2	4	4	7	9	10
16	Huracan Balazote	10	2	1	7	9	23	7
17	CD Quintanar del Rey	10	1	3	6	12	20	6
18	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	10	0	3	7	9	24	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Almansa	CD Torrijos
CD Manchego CR	0-1 L	1-4 L
Huracan Balazote	3-1 W	0-1 L
CD Villacanas	0-0 D	0-3 L
La Solana	3-0 W	0-2 L
CD Noblejas	2-3 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Almansa (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Almansa

LWDWLWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Illescas Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
01/11	Villarrobledo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
25/10	Toledo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
18/10	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	1-1	9	7	D
10/10	Marchamalo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	3-1	5	7	W
04/10	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
27/09	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	3-1	5	6	W
19/09	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	La Solana Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	3-0	3	1	W
05/09	CD Noblejas Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	2-3	3	9	L

CD Torrijos

WWDWDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	1-4	4	6	L
31/10	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-1	–	–	L
25/10	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-3	2	6	L
17/10	La Solana Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/10	CD Noblejas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	4-0	–	–	W
04/10	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Tercera Group 18	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
20/09	Socuéllamos Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
05/09	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-0	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Almansa vs CD Torrijos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Almansa win (48%). Probabilities: Almansa 48%, draw 28%, CD Torrijos 24%.

How many goals are expected in Almansa vs CD Torrijos?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Almansa 1.46 · CD Torrijos 0.96), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Almansa vs CD Torrijos?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.