Football · Spain Tercera Group 18 · 15/11, 12:30

Prediction: AD San Clemente vs Illescas

Team pages: AD San Clemente · Illescas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

AD San Clemente1.35

Illescas1.31

1X2

37% 29% 35%

AD San Clemente Draw Illescas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AD San Clemente 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLWWDWLW

Illescas 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWLLLW

Head-to-head

AD San Clemente 0–2–2 Illescas (4 last)

Illescas1-1AD San Clemente
AD San Clemente0-1Illescas
AD San Clemente2-2Illescas
Illescas1-0AD San Clemente

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD San Clemente 1523 · Illescas 1513

	AD San Clemente	Draw	Illescas
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Illescas: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD San Clemente	Illescas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.5	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	17/50/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3	2.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.5	7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.10

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.45▼	Bet365 2.45
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.12
2	2.25 → 2.60▲	Pinn 2.74 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:03 +33’	2.88	3.10	2.25
13:56 +17’	2.45▼	3.10	2.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:56 +17’	2.42	3.12	2.74

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD San Clemente 0–2–2 Illescas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 18	Illescas	1-1 HT 1-0	AD San Clemente
21/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	AD San Clemente	0-1 HT 0-0	Illescas
20/03/22 Spain Tercera Group 18	AD San Clemente	2-2 HT 0-0	Illescas
21/11/21 Spain Tercera Group 18	Illescas	1-0	AD San Clemente

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 18

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Manchego CR	10	8	0	2	18	8	24
2	Toledo	10	7	1	2	22	10	22
3	CD Villacanas	10	5	3	2	19	10	18
4	CD Villa	10	6	0	4	15	13	18
5	Villarrobledo	10	4	5	1	11	5	17
6	Illescas	10	5	2	3	13	12	17
7	CD Tarancon	10	4	3	3	16	13	15
8	AD San Clemente	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
9	CD Torrijos	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
10	CD Noblejas	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
11	Villarrubia CF	10	3	4	3	12	13	13
12	Almansa	10	3	3	4	13	11	12
13	Marchamalo	10	3	3	4	16	18	12
14	La Solana	10	4	0	6	9	11	12
15	Socuéllamos	10	2	4	4	7	9	10
16	Huracan Balazote	10	2	1	7	9	23	7
17	CD Quintanar del Rey	10	1	3	6	12	20	6
18	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	10	0	3	7	9	24	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD San Clemente	Illescas
Almansa	1-1 D	1-0 W
CD Manchego CR	3-1 W	1-4 L
Huracan Balazote	5-3 W	0-1 L
CD Villacanas	0-2 L	3-4 L
La Solana	0-4 L	1-0 W
CD Noblejas	1-1 D	2-1 W
Villarrubia CF	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Illescas (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD San Clemente

DDLLWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Villarrobledo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-0	–	–	W
31/10	Toledo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/10	Marchamalo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	3-1	–	–	W
18/10	Almansa Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	1-1	5	7	D
11/10	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	–	3-1	–	–	W
04/10	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	–	5-3	–	–	W
27/09	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-2	–	–	L
19/09	La Solana Spain Tercera Group 18	0-2	0-4	1	5	L
13/09	CD Noblejas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D

Illescas

WDDWWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Almansa Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
31/10	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	1-2	1-4	2	7	L
25/10	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
17/10	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	3-4	–	–	L
11/10	La Solana Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-0	3	10	W
03/10	CD Noblejas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-1	–	–	W
27/09	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
20/09	CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
13/09	Socuéllamos Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-0	–	–	D
05/09	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD San Clemente vs Illescas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD San Clemente win (37%). Probabilities: AD San Clemente 37%, draw 29%, Illescas 35%.

How many goals are expected in AD San Clemente vs Illescas?

The model expects 2.66 goals (AD San Clemente 1.35 · Illescas 1.31), with a 60% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in AD San Clemente vs Illescas?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.