Football · San Marino Campionato · 18/09, 21:15

Prediction: SS Murata vs SS Cosmos

Team pages: SS Murata · SS Cosmos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

SS Murata0.82

SS Cosmos2.11

1X2

13% 20% 67%

SS Murata Draw SS Cosmos

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SS Murata 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLWL

SS Cosmos 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWWDDDLW

Head-to-head

SS Murata 3–1–2 SS Cosmos (6 last)

SS Murata0-3SS Cosmos
SS Cosmos1-1SS Murata
SS Murata2-0SS Cosmos
SS Cosmos0-1SS Murata
SS Murata1-0SS Cosmos
SS Cosmos2-1SS Murata

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SS Murata 1382 · SS Cosmos 1526

	SS Murata	Draw	SS Cosmos
Our model	13%	21%	66%
Market	14%	19%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SS Cosmos (rating 1382 vs 1526).
H2H favours SS Murata: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SS Murata	SS Cosmos
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 3.2	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 2.2	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/0/90%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.7 / 1.7	1.3 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.2	6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

16.50

X4.75

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.93

2 (-1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +9’	6.50	4.75	1.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SS Murata 3–1–2 SS Cosmos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 San Marino Campionato	SS Murata	0-3 HT 0-1	SS Cosmos
31/10/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	1-1 HT 0-0	SS Murata
22/01/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Murata	2-0 HT 0-0	SS Cosmos
13/09/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	0-1 HT 0-0	SS Murata
06/04/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Murata	1-0 HT 0-0	SS Cosmos
16/12/23 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	2-1 HT 1-0	SS Murata

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tre Fiori	3	3	0	0	12	2	9
2	SS Folgore/Falciano	3	3	0	0	8	1	9
3	Tre Penne	3	3	0	0	7	2	9
4	SS Virtus	3	2	1	0	3	0	7
5	SP Domagnano	3	2	0	1	6	4	6
6	SS Cosmos	3	1	1	1	7	4	4
7	AC Libertas	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
8	FC Fiorentino	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
9	SS San Giovanni	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
10	Juvenes/Dogana	3	1	0	2	6	4	3
11	La Fiorita	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
12	SS Murata	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
13	San Marino Academy U22	3	0	2	1	1	3	2
14	SC Faetano	3	0	1	2	0	8	1
15	SP Cailungo	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
16	Pennarossa	3	0	0	3	4	15	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SS Murata	SS Cosmos
Pennarossa	4-1 W	6-1 W
SS Folgore/Falciano	0-5 L	0-0 D
Tre Penne	0-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SS Cosmos (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SS Murata

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
06/09	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	2-1	4-1	2	4	W
28/08	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-3	0-5	1	3	L
26/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-2	2-5	1	0	L
18/04	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-3	1-4	1	1	L
12/04	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-4	–	–	L
08/04	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
21/03	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
15/03	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
07/03	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-2	–	–	L

SS Cosmos

DLLWWDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	3-0	6-1	1	5	W
04/09	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	3	11	L
29/08	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
06/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
03/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
29/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	1-0	3-0	2	7	W
26/04	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/04	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-3	1-3	1	0	L
12/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
08/04	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SS Murata vs SS Cosmos?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SS Cosmos win (67%). Probabilities: SS Murata 13%, draw 20%, SS Cosmos 67%.

How many goals are expected in SS Murata vs SS Cosmos?

The model expects 2.93 goals (SS Murata 0.82 · SS Cosmos 2.11), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SS Murata vs SS Cosmos?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.