Football · San Marino Campionato · 19/09, 15:00

Prediction: SS Folgore/Falciano vs San Marino Academy U22

Team pages: SS Folgore/Falciano · San Marino Academy U22

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

SS Folgore/Falciano2.19

San Marino Academy U220.76

1X2

70% 19% 11%

SS Folgore/Falciano Draw San Marino Academy U22

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

SS Folgore/Falciano 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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San Marino Academy U22 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

SS Folgore/Falciano 5–0 San Marino Academy U22 (5 last)

SS Folgore/Falciano3-0San Marino Academy U22
San Marino Academy U220-3SS Folgore/Falciano
San Marino Academy U221-3SS Folgore/Falciano
SS Folgore/Falciano2-0San Marino Academy U22
San Marino Academy U220-4SS Folgore/Falciano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SS Folgore/Falciano 1589 · San Marino Academy U22 1432

	SS Folgore/Falciano	Draw	San Marino Academy U22
Our model	69%	20%	11%
Market	70%	18%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SS Folgore/Falciano (rating 1589 vs 1432).
H2H favours SS Folgore/Falciano: 5-0-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SS Folgore/Falciano	San Marino Academy U22
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.1	1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.00

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)2.00

2 (+1.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:46 +7’	1.27	5.00	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SS Folgore/Falciano 5–0–0 San Marino Academy U22

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 San Marino Campionato	SS Folgore/Falciano	3-0 HT 2-0	San Marino Academy U22
20/12/25 San Marino Campionato	San Marino Academy U22	0-3 HT 0-2	SS Folgore/Falciano
23/02/25 San Marino Campionato	San Marino Academy U22	1-3 HT 0-3	SS Folgore/Falciano
27/10/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Folgore/Falciano	2-0 HT 0-0	San Marino Academy U22
13/01/24 San Marino Campionato	San Marino Academy U22	0-4 HT 0-2	SS Folgore/Falciano

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tre Fiori	3	3	0	0	12	2	9
2	SS Folgore/Falciano	3	3	0	0	8	1	9
3	Tre Penne	3	3	0	0	7	2	9
4	SS Virtus	3	2	1	0	3	0	7
5	SP Domagnano	3	2	0	1	6	4	6
6	SS Cosmos	3	1	1	1	7	4	4
7	AC Libertas	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
8	FC Fiorentino	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
9	SS San Giovanni	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
10	Juvenes/Dogana	3	1	0	2	6	4	3
11	La Fiorita	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
12	SS Murata	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
13	San Marino Academy U22	3	0	2	1	1	3	2
14	SC Faetano	3	0	1	2	0	8	1
15	SP Cailungo	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
16	Pennarossa	3	0	0	3	4	15	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SS Folgore/Falciano	San Marino Academy U22
Juvenes/Dogana	2-1 W	0-0 D
SP Cailungo	1-0 W	1-1 D
SP Domagnano	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SS Folgore/Falciano (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SS Folgore/Falciano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
05/09	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
28/08	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	3-0	5-0	5	3	W
05/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
02/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
25/04	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	3-2	7-3	1	1	W
19/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
12/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-2	2-2	6	3	D
08/04	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	14	5	D
22/03	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-1	4	6	D

San Marino Academy U22

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
06/09	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
28/08	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
25/04	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-3	11	2	L
11/04	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
07/04	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-3	9	4	L
22/03	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
15/03	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
07/03	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	2-1	4-2	0	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SS Folgore/Falciano vs San Marino Academy U22?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SS Folgore/Falciano win (70%). Probabilities: SS Folgore/Falciano 70%, draw 19%, San Marino Academy U22 11%.

How many goals are expected in SS Folgore/Falciano vs San Marino Academy U22?

The model expects 2.95 goals (SS Folgore/Falciano 2.19 · San Marino Academy U22 0.76), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SS Folgore/Falciano vs San Marino Academy U22?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.