Football · San Marino Campionato · 18/09, 21:15

Prediction: Tre Fiori vs SS Virtus

Team pages: Tre Fiori · SS Virtus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Tre Fiori1.17

SS Virtus1.25

1X2

34% 29% 38%

Tre Fiori Draw SS Virtus

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tre Fiori 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWDWWW

SS Virtus 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLWDWW

Head-to-head

Tre Fiori 2–2–2 SS Virtus (6 last)

Tre Fiori1-0SS Virtus
Tre Fiori4-1SS Virtus
SS Virtus0-0Tre Fiori
SS Virtus1-0Tre Fiori
SS Virtus0-0Tre Fiori
SS Virtus1-0Tre Fiori

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tre Fiori 1537 · SS Virtus 1585

	Tre Fiori	Draw	SS Virtus
Our model	33%	30%	37%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SS Virtus (rating 1537 vs 1585).
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tre Fiori	SS Virtus
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 0.6	2.5 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.3	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.2	2.7 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	2.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.20

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:18 +1’	2.63	3.20	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tre Fiori 2–2–2 SS Virtus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 San Marino Cup	Tre Fiori	1-0 HT 1-0	SS Virtus
14/03/26 San Marino Campionato	Tre Fiori	4-1 HT 4-1	SS Virtus
04/03/26 San Marino Cup	SS Virtus	0-0 HT 0-0	Tre Fiori
23/12/25 San Marino Super Cup	SS Virtus	1-0 HT 1-0	Tre Fiori
22/11/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Virtus	0-0 HT 0-0	Tre Fiori
24/05/25 San Marino Cup	SS Virtus	1-0 HT 1-0	Tre Fiori

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tre Fiori	3	3	0	0	12	2	9
2	SS Folgore/Falciano	3	3	0	0	8	1	9
3	Tre Penne	3	3	0	0	7	2	9
4	SS Virtus	3	2	1	0	3	0	7
5	SP Domagnano	3	2	0	1	6	4	6
6	SS Cosmos	3	1	1	1	7	4	4
7	AC Libertas	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
8	FC Fiorentino	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
9	SS San Giovanni	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
10	Juvenes/Dogana	3	1	0	2	6	4	3
11	La Fiorita	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
12	SS Murata	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
13	San Marino Academy U22	3	0	2	1	1	3	2
14	SC Faetano	3	0	1	2	0	8	1
15	SP Cailungo	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
16	Pennarossa	3	0	0	3	4	15	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tre Fiori	SS Virtus
SP Domagnano	3-0 W	1-2 L
AC Libertas	3-0 W	2-0 W
La Fiorita	0-0 D	0-0 D
SP Cailungo	3-2 W	6-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tre Fiori (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tre Fiori

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	3-0	3-0	3	2	W
04/09	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
30/08	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	1-1	5-2	4	3	W
26/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
19/04	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
12/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
08/04	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
22/03	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
14/03	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	4-1	4-1	2	3	W
08/03	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-1	3-2	5	3	W

SS Virtus

WWDWWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-0	2	0	W
04/09	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	0	0	W
30/08	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
16/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
12/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-2	8	8	L
09/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
06/05	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
03/05	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
26/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	4-0	9-0	6	2	W
19/04	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	2-1	6-1	16	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tre Fiori vs SS Virtus?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SS Virtus win (38%). Probabilities: Tre Fiori 34%, draw 29%, SS Virtus 38%.

How many goals are expected in Tre Fiori vs SS Virtus?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Tre Fiori 1.17 · SS Virtus 1.25), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tre Fiori vs SS Virtus?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.