Football · San Marino Campionato · 28/08, 21:15

Prediction: San Marino Academy U22 vs FC Fiorentino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

San Marino Academy U221.15

FC Fiorentino1.58

1X2

27% 26% 47%

San Marino Academy U22 Draw FC Fiorentino

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

San Marino Academy U22 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDLLLD

FC Fiorentino 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLWLLW

Head-to-head

San Marino Academy U22 1–5 FC Fiorentino (6 last)

San Marino Academy U220-3FC Fiorentino
FC Fiorentino1-0San Marino Academy U22
FC Fiorentino2-1San Marino Academy U22
San Marino Academy U221-2FC Fiorentino
San Marino Academy U222-0FC Fiorentino
FC Fiorentino3-2San Marino Academy U22

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Marino Academy U22 1456 · FC Fiorentino 1501

	San Marino Academy U22	Draw	FC Fiorentino
Our model	26%	27%	46%
Market	28%	25%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Fiorentino (rating 1456 vs 1501).
H2H favours FC Fiorentino: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Marino Academy U22	FC Fiorentino
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 6.1	1.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.4	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.60

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:20 +21’	3.25	3.60	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Marino Academy U22 1–0–5 FC Fiorentino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/04/26 San Marino Campionato	San Marino Academy U22	0-3 HT 0-1	FC Fiorentino
07/12/25 San Marino Campionato	FC Fiorentino	1-0 HT 0-0	San Marino Academy U22
25/01/25 San Marino Campionato	FC Fiorentino	2-1 HT 1-1	San Marino Academy U22
21/09/24 San Marino Campionato	San Marino Academy U22	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Fiorentino
24/02/24 San Marino Campionato	San Marino Academy U22	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Fiorentino
05/11/23 San Marino Campionato	FC Fiorentino	3-2 HT 2-0	San Marino Academy U22

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Juvenes/Dogana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AC Libertas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SS Virtus	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SS Cosmos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SP Domagnano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Fiorentino	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	San Marino Academy U22	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Faetano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SP Cailungo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	La Fiorita	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tre Fiori	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tre Penne	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SS Murata	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pennarossa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SS San Giovanni	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Marino Academy U22	FC Fiorentino
SP Cailungo	1-1 D	3-1 W
SC Faetano	4-2 W	1-2 L
SS Cosmos	0-1 L	1-0 W
SS Murata	4-1 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Fiorentino (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Marino Academy U22

WLDWLDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/04	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-3	11	2	L
11/04	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
07/04	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-3	9	4	L
22/03	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
15/03	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
07/03	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	2-1	4-2	0	0	W
01/03	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
22/02	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
14/02	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	2-0	4-1	6	4	W

FC Fiorentino

LWWDWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	2-1	3-2	4	5	W
02/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
25/04	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
18/04	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	3-1	4-1	4	1	W
11/04	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
07/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
21/03	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/03	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
07/03	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
28/02	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Marino Academy U22 vs FC Fiorentino?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Fiorentino win (47%). Probabilities: San Marino Academy U22 27%, draw 26%, FC Fiorentino 47%.

How many goals are expected in San Marino Academy U22 vs FC Fiorentino?

The model expects 2.72 goals (San Marino Academy U22 1.15 · FC Fiorentino 1.58), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in San Marino Academy U22 vs FC Fiorentino?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.