Football · San Marino Campionato · 11/09, 21:15

Prediction: Tre Fiori vs SP Domagnano

Team pages: Tre Fiori · SP Domagnano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Tre Fiori1.83

SP Domagnano1.16

1X2

52% 25% 23%

Tre Fiori Draw SP Domagnano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Tre Fiori 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWDWW

SP Domagnano 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tre Fiori 4–1–1 SP Domagnano (6 last)

Tre Fiori2-0SP Domagnano
SP Domagnano0-1Tre Fiori
SP Domagnano1-0Tre Fiori
Tre Fiori3-0SP Domagnano
Tre Fiori2-2SP Domagnano
SP Domagnano1-3Tre Fiori

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tre Fiori 1535 · SP Domagnano 1511

	Tre Fiori	Draw	SP Domagnano
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	52%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tre Fiori: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tre Fiori	SP Domagnano
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 0.6	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	1.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.8	1.6 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.70

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.73▲	Bet365 1.73
X	3.90 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	4.60 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.37 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:37 +2’	1.57	3.90	4.60
10:22 +3’	1.73▲	3.70▼	3.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:30 +55’	1.75	3.35	3.91
16:58 +21’	1.63▼	3.51▲	4.37▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tre Fiori 4–1–1 SP Domagnano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 San Marino Campionato	Tre Fiori	2-0 HT 1-0	SP Domagnano
05/10/25 San Marino Campionato	SP Domagnano	0-1 HT 0-1	Tre Fiori
09/02/25 San Marino Campionato	SP Domagnano	1-0 HT 0-0	Tre Fiori
06/10/24 San Marino Campionato	Tre Fiori	3-0 HT 2-0	SP Domagnano
14/01/24 San Marino Campionato	Tre Fiori	2-2 HT 0-0	SP Domagnano
19/03/23 San Marino Campionato	SP Domagnano	1-3 HT 0-0	Tre Fiori

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tre Fiori	2	2	0	0	9	2	6
2	SS Folgore/Falciano	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
3	SP Domagnano	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
4	Tre Penne	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
5	AC Libertas	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
6	SS Virtus	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
7	Juvenes/Dogana	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
8	FC Fiorentino	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
9	SS Murata	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
10	La Fiorita	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
11	SS Cosmos	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
11	San Marino Academy U22	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
13	SP Cailungo	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
14	SS San Giovanni	2	0	0	2	2	7	0
15	Pennarossa	2	0	0	2	3	9	0
16	SC Faetano	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tre Fiori	SP Domagnano
La Fiorita	0-0 D	1-1 D
SS Virtus	4-1 W	2-1 W
SP Cailungo	3-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Tre Fiori (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tre Fiori

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
30/08	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	1-1	5-2	4	3	W
26/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
19/04	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
12/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
08/04	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
22/03	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
14/03	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	4-1	4-1	2	3	W
08/03	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-1	3-2	5	3	W
28/02	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	8	2	W

SP Domagnano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	3-0	4-0	0	0	W
28/08	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	4	1	W
16/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-3	8	0	L
12/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-1	0	8	W
09/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
05/05	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
02/05	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
25/04	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	2-3	3-7	3	1	L
18/04	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-0	3	0	W
11/04	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-1	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tre Fiori vs SP Domagnano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tre Fiori win (52%). Probabilities: Tre Fiori 52%, draw 25%, SP Domagnano 23%.

How many goals are expected in Tre Fiori vs SP Domagnano?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Tre Fiori 1.83 · SP Domagnano 1.16), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tre Fiori vs SP Domagnano?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.