Football · San Marino Campionato · 28/08, 21:15

Prediction: Juvenes/Dogana vs SC Faetano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Juvenes/Dogana1.64

SC Faetano0.88

1X2

55% 25% 20%

Juvenes/Dogana Draw SC Faetano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Juvenes/Dogana 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLDDWDDL

SC Faetano 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Juvenes/Dogana 5–1 SC Faetano (6 last)

SC Faetano0-1Juvenes/Dogana
Juvenes/Dogana3-1SC Faetano
Juvenes/Dogana2-1SC Faetano
SC Faetano1-0Juvenes/Dogana
SC Faetano0-3Juvenes/Dogana
Juvenes/Dogana3-1SC Faetano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juvenes/Dogana 1483 · SC Faetano 1405

	Juvenes/Dogana	Draw	SC Faetano
Our model	54%	27%	19%
Market	56%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juvenes/Dogana (rating 1483 vs 1405).
H2H favours Juvenes/Dogana: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juvenes/Dogana	SC Faetano
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1	0.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.1	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4	2 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.5	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.80

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:25 +3’	1.61	3.80	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juvenes/Dogana 5–0–1 SC Faetano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 San Marino Campionato	SC Faetano	0-1 HT 0-0	Juvenes/Dogana
22/11/25 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	3-1 HT 2-1	SC Faetano
15/03/25 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	2-1 HT 1-1	SC Faetano
23/11/24 San Marino Campionato	SC Faetano	1-0 HT 0-0	Juvenes/Dogana
06/04/24 San Marino Campionato	SC Faetano	0-3 HT 0-1	Juvenes/Dogana
16/12/23 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	3-1 HT 1-1	SC Faetano

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Juvenes/Dogana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AC Libertas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SS Virtus	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SS Cosmos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SP Domagnano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Fiorentino	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	San Marino Academy U22	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Faetano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SP Cailungo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	La Fiorita	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tre Fiori	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tre Penne	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SS Murata	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pennarossa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SS San Giovanni	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juvenes/Dogana	SC Faetano
SS Virtus	0-2 L	0-2 L
AC Libertas	1-1 D	1-2 L
San Marino Academy U22	0-0 D	2-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Juvenes/Dogana (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Juvenes/Dogana

LWDLDDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
03/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
29/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	5	11	D
26/04	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	2-0	5-2	8	0	W
18/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
12/04	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-2	4	3	D
08/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
22/03	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
14/03	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
08/03	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-2	5	1	L

SC Faetano

LLLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/04	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
19/04	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
11/04	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
07/04	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
21/03	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
14/03	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
07/03	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	1-2	2-4	0	0	L
28/02	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-3	0	5	L
22/02	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	0	0	L
15/02	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-2	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juvenes/Dogana vs SC Faetano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Juvenes/Dogana win (55%). Probabilities: Juvenes/Dogana 55%, draw 25%, SC Faetano 20%.

How many goals are expected in Juvenes/Dogana vs SC Faetano?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Juvenes/Dogana 1.64 · SC Faetano 0.88), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Juvenes/Dogana vs SC Faetano?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.