Football · San Marino Campionato · 28/08, 21:15

Prediction: SP Cailungo vs SP Domagnano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

SP Cailungo1.17

SP Domagnano2.53

1X2

15% 19% 66%

SP Cailungo Draw SP Domagnano

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

SP Cailungo 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

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SP Domagnano 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

SP Cailungo 0–1–5 SP Domagnano (6 last)

SP Cailungo1-2SP Domagnano
SP Domagnano3-0SP Cailungo
SP Cailungo0-1SP Domagnano
SP Domagnano3-1SP Cailungo
SP Domagnano3-0SP Cailungo
SP Cailungo1-1SP Domagnano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SP Cailungo 1383 · SP Domagnano 1541

	SP Cailungo	Draw	SP Domagnano
Our model	15%	19%	66%
Market	15%	19%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SP Domagnano (rating 1383 vs 1541).
H2H favours SP Domagnano: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SP Cailungo	SP Domagnano
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 3	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 2.9	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

16.00

X4.75

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:38 +3’	6.00	4.75	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SP Cailungo 0–1–5 SP Domagnano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	1-2 HT 0-0	SP Domagnano
02/11/25 San Marino Campionato	SP Domagnano	3-0 HT 1-0	SP Cailungo
01/03/25 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	0-1 HT 0-1	SP Domagnano
03/11/24 San Marino Campionato	SP Domagnano	3-1 HT 2-0	SP Cailungo
02/03/24 San Marino Campionato	SP Domagnano	3-0 HT 0-0	SP Cailungo
11/11/23 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	1-1 HT 1-0	SP Domagnano

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Juvenes/Dogana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AC Libertas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SS Virtus	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SS Cosmos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SP Domagnano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Fiorentino	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	San Marino Academy U22	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Faetano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SP Cailungo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	La Fiorita	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tre Fiori	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tre Penne	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SS Murata	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pennarossa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SS San Giovanni	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SP Cailungo	SP Domagnano
SS Virtus	1-6 L	2-1 W
Tre Penne	1-6 L	1-3 L
SS San Giovanni	1-2 L	2-0 W
La Fiorita	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SP Domagnano (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SP Cailungo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	1-2	1-6	3	1	L
11/04	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-6	1	4	L
07/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
21/03	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
15/03	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
08/03	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-3	2	3	L
01/03	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
22/02	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
14/02	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-3	2	2	L

SP Domagnano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-3	8	0	L
12/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-1	0	8	W
09/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
05/05	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
02/05	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
25/04	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	2-3	3-7	3	1	L
18/04	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-0	3	0	W
11/04	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
07/04	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
22/03	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-2	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SP Cailungo vs SP Domagnano?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SP Domagnano win (66%). Probabilities: SP Cailungo 15%, draw 19%, SP Domagnano 66%.

How many goals are expected in SP Cailungo vs SP Domagnano?

The model expects 3.69 goals (SP Cailungo 1.17 · SP Domagnano 2.53), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SP Cailungo vs SP Domagnano?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.