Football · San Marino Campionato · 28/08, 21:15
Prediction: SS Folgore/Falciano vs SS Murata
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.14Total
SS Folgore/Falciano3.07
SS Murata1.07
1X2
SS Folgore/Falciano
Draw
SS Murata
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
SS Folgore/Falciano
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
SS Murata
0-0-10 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
SS Folgore/Falciano
5–1–0
SS Murata
(6 last)
- SS Folgore/Falciano3-2SS Murata
- SS Murata0-2SS Folgore/Falciano
- SS Murata0-1SS Folgore/Falciano
- SS Folgore/Falciano1-0SS Murata
- SS Murata0-0SS Folgore/Falciano
- SS Folgore/Falciano1-0SS Murata
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SS Folgore/Falciano 1566 · SS Murata 1352
| SS Folgore/Falciano | Draw | SS Murata | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 82% | 10% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.14 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SS Folgore/Falciano (rating 1566 vs 1352).
- H2H favours SS Folgore/Falciano: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SS Folgore/Falciano | SS Murata | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 3.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.1 / 2.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 0/0/100% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.6 | 1 / 2.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 1.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SS Folgore/Falciano 5–1–0 SS Murata
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 San Marino Campionato | SS Folgore/Falciano | 3-2 HT 1-2 | SS Murata |
| 28/09/25 San Marino Campionato | SS Murata | 0-2 HT 0-0 | SS Folgore/Falciano |
| 08/03/25 San Marino Campionato | SS Murata | 0-1 HT 0-1 | SS Folgore/Falciano |
| 08/11/24 San Marino Campionato | SS Folgore/Falciano | 1-0 HT 1-0 | SS Murata |
| 23/10/24 San Marino Cup | SS Murata | 0-0 HT 0-0 | SS Folgore/Falciano |
| 24/09/24 San Marino Cup | SS Folgore/Falciano | 1-0 HT 0-0 | SS Murata |
Standings · San Marino Campionato
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juvenes/Dogana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | AC Libertas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SS Virtus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SS Cosmos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SP Domagnano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Fiorentino | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | San Marino Academy U22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SC Faetano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SP Cailungo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | La Fiorita | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tre Fiori | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tre Penne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SS Folgore/Falciano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SS Murata | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pennarossa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SS San Giovanni | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | SS Folgore/Falciano | SS Murata |
|---|---|---|
| SP Domagnano | 1-3 L | 0-5 L |
| San Marino Academy U22 | 3-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Juvenes/Dogana | 2-2 D | 2-5 L |
| SS Cosmos | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Tre Penne | 1-1 D | 0-4 L |
| SS San Giovanni | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: SS Folgore/Falciano (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SS Folgore/Falciano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05 | SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato |
3-2 | 7-3 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 19/04 | San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 08/04 | SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 5 | D |
| 22/03 | Tre Penne San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 15/03 | SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato |
2-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 08/03 | La Fiorita San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 01/03 | AC Libertas San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
SS Murata
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04 | Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato |
0-2 | 2-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato |
1-3 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | SS Virtus San Marino Campionato |
0-3 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 08/04 | Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 21/03 | Pennarossa San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 15/03 | Tre Penne San Marino Campionato |
0-3 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 07/03 | SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 01/03 | SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 22/02 | SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 14/02 | San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SS Folgore/Falciano vs SS Murata?
According to our model, the most likely result is a SS Folgore/Falciano win (80%). Probabilities: SS Folgore/Falciano 80%, draw 12%, SS Murata 8%.
How many goals are expected in SS Folgore/Falciano vs SS Murata?
The model expects 4.14 goals (SS Folgore/Falciano 3.07 · SS Murata 1.07), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in SS Folgore/Falciano vs SS Murata?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.